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SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

| June 7, 2019 @ 4:36 pm

SUMMARY…Thunderstorm clusters will continue to pose a threat of locally damaging wind into the early evening.

DISCUSSION…Several thunderstorm clusters are ongoing at 2130Z across eastern MS, with activity beginning to move into western AL. The thermodynamic environment across the region is characterized by generally weak midlevel lapse rates, but also rich low-level moisture and temperatures warming to near 90F downstream of ongoing storms, supporting MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Area VWPs suggest the strongest shear (effective shear of 30-40 kt) is located across the southern half of the MCD area, within a region of moderate midlevel westerly flow to the southeast of a well-defined upper trough to the northwest. Storms across southeast MS into southwest AL may display supercell characteristics at times, with a threat of locally damaging wind and some (generally subsevere) hail. Across the northern portion of the MCD area, shear is somewhat weaker, but instability is more than sufficient to support strong convection, and ongoing cumulus development across west-central/northwest AL suggests upstream clusters should persist into this area, with a corresponding threat of locally damaging wind associated with any upscale growing segments. While some sporadic damaging wind is possible across portions of the MCD area, at this time the overall threat appears too limited in coverage/intensity for watch issuance.

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Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions

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