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SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

| August 14, 2019 @ 1:39 pm

SUMMARY…A few strong wind gusts will be possible through the afternoon from the central Gulf Coast vicinity northeast toward eastern South Carolina.

DISCUSSION…Numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon along a southward-sagging cold front. Temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s have resulted in moderate to strong instability, with 18z mesoanalysis indicating 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear is weak across the region and will limit sustained organized features. However, PW values over 2 inches and low level lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km will support sporadic strong downbursts. A couple of locally damaging gusts will especially be possible if any clusters begin to surge/forward propagate through storm mergers and/or along outflow interactions. Overall, the threat will remain transient and a watch is not expected.

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Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions

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