2:30 Notes on Dorian: Winds Have Eased A Bit, But That Trend May Be Leveling Off

Dorian has gone through an eyewall replacement cycle, which always spreads out the wind field. Correspondingly, winds in the hurricane have dropped to 150 mph, which is still a strong category 4 hurricane.

The central pressure has risen to 938 mb. Flight level winds were still 149 mph. Highest surface winds were measured at 139 mph by the aircraft. The eye had expanded to 24 nautical miles in diameter and was still circular and closed. It has made another pass through the center, but we don’t have a fix yet.

LATE REPORT: The eye was open to the west on the second pass and the pressure came up to 941 mpb. But the cooling of the cloud tops continues so intensification may be occurring. There is not much lightning in the eyewall now, so it is not a very energetic strengthening trend.

A FEW NOTES

…Tropical-storm-force winds are occurring along the East Coast of Florida. Winds have gusted to 40 mph at Daytona, and 43 mph at Tamiami Airport. Winds gusted to 56 mph at Juno Beach.

…The hurricane center is 1105 miles east of West Palm Beach, just north of Grand Bahama Island. Much of the island is in the southern eyewall. The hurricane center has definitely shifted ever so slightly to the north.

…The cloud pattern around the center had weakened some, but cloud tops have started cooling again in the past hour or so. The weakening trends may have leveled off.

…No change in the model data. The ECMWF ensemble mean hugs the coast within 50-70 miles from Florida to South Carolina then comes close to the North Carolina Coast. The GFS is in lockstep with the Euro.

…We don’t expect any major changes with the next forecast package, which will come out at 4 p.m. Watches and warnings will likely be expanded northward.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical