Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 is on the Board: Forecast Track to Remain in Atlantic, but Bears Watching for Gulf

The disturbance over the Bahamas has developed enough for the National Hurricane Center to designate it as Potential Tropical Cyclone #9. The means that the system will become a tropical depression or a tropical storm within the next 24 to 36 hours.

The system is located about 235 miles to the southeast of Great Abaco Island. Maximum Winds are 30 mph and the central pressure is around 1008 millibars or 29.77 Inches. It is moving NW at 8 mph.

Satellite imagery and other data indicate that this disturbance has not yet developed a closed circulation yet, but it continues to become better organized. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for parts of the northwestern Bahamas.

The system being impacted by strong wind shear caused by an upper-level low-pressure system that is located over the Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions will become more favorable for strengthening Friday and Saturday.

The forecast track carries it into the northwestern Bahamas on Friday night and Saturday morning followed by a strengthening tropical storm very close to the east coast of Florida from late Saturday to Monday. We note that the GFS model forecasts a highly sheared barely tropical depression to move into the eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, though and this possibility still must be considered.

Suffice to say, the forecast track is more uncertain than usual for now.

Tropical storm conditions, including wind gusts of up to 60 mph, heavy rainfall with amounts of 2 to 5 inches and rough surf is expected in the Bahamas from Friday afternoon through Saturday. A significant storm surge IS NOT expected.

There is the possibility for tropical storm conditions across parts of Florida’s East Coast from Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

The rest of the East Coast needs to monitor the track of this system because of the forecast uncertainty.

As far as Alabama goes, there is still some chance that the GFS solution turns out to be right and the system could bring us beneficial rains. We will be watching.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Tropical