A Dry & Nice Saturday; A Few Showers Possible On Sunday

| February 15, 2020 @ 4:30 am

A VERY NICE SATURDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
A high will begin to form just to our east over the coastline of North Carolina that will begin to pull warmer and moist air up from the Gulf into Central Alabama, but we will stay dry. Skies will be mainly sunny through much of the day, but clouds will make a return late. There may be a stray shower or two moving into the extreme southern parts of the area before daybreak on Sunday, but that is not likely at this point. Afternoon highs will be in the mid-50s to the lower 60s across the area.

A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
As the high will be off to our east on Sunday, a low will form off to the west over the northwestern parts of Texas. That will continue the flow of warmer and moist air from the Gulf up into Central Alabama. We’ll have mainly cloudy skies across much of Central Alabama with a small chance of rain for locations in the southern 2/3rds of the area. Highs will be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
On Monday, a cold front forms from a low that will be moving rapidly northeastward from the central Midwestern states up toward the Great Lakes Region, and the front will begin to move in our general direction. We’ll continue to be in the flow from the Gulf that will keep a few showers in the forecast throughout the day, but overall rain chances will remain small. Highs will be in the mid-60s to the lower 70s.

A STRONG STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
The cold front will approach from the northwest on Tuesday and will begin to move through the northern half of Central Alabama, bringing rain and thunderstorms to the area. We may have to watch this setup as we’ll have plenty of warm, moist air in place which will be a little unstable. The good news is that the low associated with the front will be way up in Canada, so we are not expecting a big issue.

Projected soundings for Central Alabama on Tuesday afternoon shows a marginal severe thunderstorm threat as there looks to be a modest amount of instability, but the shear is on the weaker side. The Storm Prediction Center does not mention and threat for severe storms on their Day 5 Outlook graphic at this point. We’ll keep our eyes on it this weekend to see if we would need to make changes to this forecast. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 60s to the mid-70s. Rainfall amounts for the day look to be in the 1.00-1.75 inch range across the area.

STALLED FRONT KEEPS SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
The front will be stationary over the central parts of the area on Wednesday that will keep showers in the forecast and skies cloudy. The good news is that rainfall totals will be well less than 0.50 inches across the area. Highs will be in the lower 50s to the mid-60s across the area for northwest to southeast.

On Thursday, the front finally starts moving slowly southward which will keep most of Central Alabama dry behind the front and only a few showers possible ahead of the front. Looks like showers will be out of the area by the evening rush hour. Highs will be in the upper 40s to the mid-50s.

FINALLY… WE ESCAPE FROM THE RAIN ON FRIDAY
Skies will start to clear out on Friday and we’ll eventually have a decent amount of sunshine before sunset. It will be dry but rather cool across Central Alabama. Highs will range from the lower 50s in the northeast to the upper 50s in the southeastern parts of the area.

2020 SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK – 2/16-2/21
As you know, Alabama is no stranger to severe weather, especially tornadoes. They can happen at any time of the year and at any time, day or night. We are approaching our primary severe weather season for Alabama (March, April, and May). Our 2020 Severe Weather Awareness Week starts on Sunday, February 16th and goes through Friday, February 21st. We will have posts on the blog throughout the week discussing severe weather hazards and safety. Governor Ivey has also declared next weekend (Friday, February 21st through Sunday, February 23rd) as the 2020 Severe Weather Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday. For more information on the tax holiday, please CLICK HERE to visit the Alabama Sales Tax Holiday section of NWS Birmingham’s Severe Weather Awareness Week page.

NWS BIRMINGHAM SKYWARN STORM SPOTTER TRAINING
The National Weather Service office in Birmingham will be offering several online Basic Spotter Courses and a single Advanced Spotter Course over the next few months. These online courses are FREE and are open to anyone who would like to learn more about what it takes to be a spotter and what to look for. More information can be found on the NWS Birmingham’s website, just CLICK HERE to visit the site.

ON THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY
1895 – A big Gulf snowstorm produced six inches at Brownsville TX and Mobile AL, 15 inches at Galveston TX, and 24 inches of snow at Rayne LA in 24 hours. Snow fell at the very mouth of the Mississippi River. Houston TX received 22 inches of snow, and nine inches blanketed New Orleans LA.

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About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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