Unsettled Conditions Stick Around

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It appears likely that the unusualness of 2009 is going to be with us a bit longer as unsettled weather sticks around with the semi-permanent eastern US trough. That is good since it will mean no excessive heat.

The trough over the eastern half of the country is still with us in spite of the GFS attempts to get rid of it in the longer term – something the GFS is still trying to do. But for the Southeast this pattern has been a big benefit for both temperatures and rainfall. And it looks like the showers and thunderstorms will continue to be with us this weekend with a slight reduction in storm coverage for the first of next week.

A stationary front continued to meander across the Southeast and was somewhat difficult to explicitly pinpoint. However, the air mass remained very moist with precipitable water values running over an inch and a half according to last nights sounding at the Shelby County Airport. So with the continued series of weak disturbances in the upper atmosphere, we should continue to see good rain chances later today and overnight into Sunday morning.

But the trough will inch eastward over the next 36 hours which should take the trough axis to our east. This should have the effect of lowering rain chances a little, but we’ll still see a moist air mass with daily showers and thunderstorms possible. But as the trough gets to our east, it puts us under a weak northwesterly flow. This means that we will once again need to watch for the formation of MCSs to our northwest which can trek long distances.

That northwesterly flow pattern should also keep us at or slightly below average temperatures for this time of year. We’ll warm back into the lower 90s for Monday and Tuesday, but temperatures should drop back to the upper 80s as we get into the mid and latter part of the week.

Unfortunately, the trough sharpens up to our east which could bring enhanced rain chances for next weekend. But that is verging on voodoo country.

Tropics remain quiet as we approach what is climatologically the most active portion of hurricane season. And SPC has a slight risk of severe storms forecast for parts of Arkansas along with parts of Texas and Oklahoma along the Red River Valley.

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I expect to post the next Weather Xtreme Video by 8 am or so tomorrow morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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