Camille Forecast Track – 4 p.m. August 14, 1969

THIS IS HISTORICAL INFORMATION! IT IS NOT A CURRENT ADVISORY. THERE IS NO TROPICAL STORM IN THE GULF.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center were facing a difficult forecast on the first afternoon of young Camille’s life on August 14, 1969.

There was a large cutoff low at 500 mb (19,500 feet) over the Southeast. Climatology indicated the storm would move toward Texas, but forecasters knew that wasn’t happening with the cutoff low. The primitive statistical/dynamic NHC-67 model predicted the storm would head toward Mobile. Given that the southern winds around the cutoff low extended all the way across the Gulf to the Yucatan, forecasters predicted that the storm could move into the Central Gulf and curve gradually and make landfall near Panama City on Sunday.

Here is the text of the Tropical Cyclone Discussion from that afternoon.

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