Watching The Tropics

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THE ALABAMA WEATHER STORY: Looks like we stay generally dry tomorrow… there could be a rogue shower somewhere tomorrow afternoon, but the chance of any one spot getting wet is only about one in ten, and not really worth mentioning in the forecast. The high will be very close to 90.

OUR WEEKEND: Looks like any afternoon showers on Saturday will be widely separated, but moisture will be a tad deeper Sunday, with the standard chance of “scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms”. Highs over the weekend will be in the 89 to 92 degree range; the MOS products look a tad too warm due to our high level of soil moisture in place.

Most of next week should offer typical August weather, with partly sunny days and the risk of an afternoon shower or storm in a few spots each day; highs at or just over 90. There could be an increase in the number of showers and storms toward the end of next week as a strong upper trough forms over the eastern U.S., pushing a surface boundary down this way.

TROPICS: Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details on the tropics. Tropical depression two has picked up a little convection during the last few hours, but is still struggling due to dry air surrounding the system in the eastern Atlantic. This could fizzle out completely, but the NHC folks are keeping this as a tropical depression for the next five days, with a position north of Puerto Rico Tuesday of next week. We note the HWRF model ramps this thing up into a category two hurricane by then, but this model is clearly an outlier and is discounted for now. This one will be a “wait and watch” situation to see if it can survive the journey across the big pond. The high latitude of the system could suggest it would not be a threat to the Gulf of Mexico if it hangs on.

The big wave south of the Cape Verde Islands could be the most significant player; most of the models bring this to tropical storm strength within 3 days, and it is on a more low latitude track, which means not as much dry air and a better chance to develop. The GFS latches on to this one, and brings it across the Bahamas, followed by a north turn toward the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. on August 24. The north turn is in response to the upper trough forecast to form over the eastern U.S. at the end of next week.

We stress for new readers that there is little skill in forecasting tropical cyclone intensity or position more than five days in advance; we are simply looking at model trends here.

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I had wonderful visits today to First Baptist Church in Tuscaloosa for a men’s breakfast early this morning, and the senior center at Talladega Springs. Thanks to everyone for their hospitality… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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