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Generally Dry Again Today

| August 14, 2009 @ 5:58 am | 8 Replies

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WEEKEND FORECAST: A fairly dry airmass covers the northern two-thirds of Alabama again this morning, and most communities around here will remain dry today, with ample sunshine and a high close to, or just above 90. A couple of rogue showers could pop up this afternoon, but the chance of any one spot getting wet is only one in ten, not worth mentioning in the forecast.

Moisture levels slowly rise over the weekend; we will mention a chance of isolated afternoon showers or storms tomorrow, then becoming a little more numerous Sunday as deeper moisture arrives. Highs over the weekend will be mostly in the 89 to 92 degree range with a partly sunny sky both days.

NEXT WEEK: Pretty routine August weather is likely for at least the first half of the week, with partly sunny days along with the standard risk of “scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. The 00Z GFS has actually come in a little wetter for next week showing potential for numerous showers and storms at times with highs only in the upper 80s. Model consistency in the idea of a long wave upper trough forming over the eastern third of the nation late next week is not good, which also makes for a difficult tropical forecast….

WHAT ABOUT THE TROPICS: I always encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video since you will see all of the graphics that are associated with these tropical systems; a picture is worth a thousand words in a blog discussion, you know…

The remnant low in the eastern Atlantic, formerly tropical depression two, now has convection developing around the center again, which means it is trying to get it’s act together. There is a chance it could redevelop in coming days on the journey across the Atlantic. This will be a higher latitude system fighting dry air and marginal SSTs, but it could be a tropical storm well north of Puerto Rico by early next week.

The one we really need to watch is the large wave south of the Cape Verde Islands. This is a more low latitude system, so the dry air won’t be as much of a factor, and sea surface temperatures will be warmer. This one will move west/northwest, and some of the intensity models ramp it up to a major hurricane in 120 hours as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

The 00Z run of the GFS takes this to near Key West, into the Gulf of Mexico, and projects landfall between New Orleans and Biloxi in the August 24-25 time frame. Let’s all say it together; this is voodoo. For new readers and viewers, there is no skill in forecasting the location or intensity of a tropical cyclone beyond 5 days. On the Weather Xtreme video, I show a map of top 10 analogs for this thing, and most of them are storms that either threatened the East Coast of the U.S., or recurved into the open Atlantic. However, we do note that Hurricane Frederic showed up on that analog list, which moved right up Mobile Bay in September 1979. I remember that one well since I covered that one on the Alabama coast, and it was my very first week as a Birmingham TV weather anchor at the ripe age of 23.

Bottom line is that we will be watching with great interest in coming days.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

James Spann Jason Simpson Ashley Brand
J. B. Elliott Bill Murray Brian Peters
Dr. Tim Coleman E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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