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Moisture Increases Over The Weekend

| August 14, 2009 @ 3:10 pm | Reply

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BRING ON THE WEEKEND: A few very small splash and dash showers have popped up on radar this afternoon, but a large majority of Alabama is rain-free. Moisture levels will increase over the weekend, so we should accordingly see a slow increase in the number of scattered showers and storms tomorrow and Sunday. Otherwise, expect a partly sunny sky tomorrow and Sunday with highs in the 89 to 92 degree range, much like today. That type of weather should last into early next week.

TROPICS: Lots of action across the Atlantic basin for a change. We continue to focus on the eastern Atlantic; the remnant low, formerly tropical depression two, sure looks like a depression again from our point of view. And, the large wave behind that one continues to get better organized, and should be upgraded to a tropical depression soon.

The Weather Xtreme video has all of the graphics, so be sure and watch… but the bottom line is that TD 2 will is a higher latitude system, and should be well north of Puerto Rico early next week. Most intensity models bring this up to a tropical storm in 120 hours. It remains to be seen if this will recurve into the open Atlantic, or move toward the East Coast of the U.S. One way or another, this one does not look like a Gulf of Mexico threat.

The large wave near 30 W is the one to watch. Models are in very good agreement in this being around the Leeward Islands by Tuesday of next week as a significant hurricane. The lower latitude track here means higher SSTs and not as much dry air, so strengthening seems likely. The 12Z GFS brings back a strong eastern U.S. upper trough late next week, which forces this system northward into the Florida peninsula before reaching the Gulf of Mexico. But remember, there is not any significant skill in forecasting the position and intensity of a tropical cyclone more than five days in advance, so we are out there in voodoo land. But, everybody across the Southeast U.S. will need to monitor the progress of this one over the next 10 days.

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My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted Monday morning at 7:00… Brian Peters will crank out the Weather Xtreme video here tomorrow and Sunday. Have a wonderful weekend!

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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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