Maybe Some Rain – Tropics Active

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The weather is becoming more active especially in the tropics with the formation of our first named system of the 2009 season. Ana was officially designated this morning as the first named storm as the tropical depression became better organized. And for us, moisture will increase with good prospects for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall should be fairly widespread with many spots collecting up to an inch of rain. Just remember that because of the showery nature, not everyone will get a good dousing. But I think this could be one of our better chances for some rain.

In the upper atmosphere, we remain under a ridge. At the surface, high pressure will continue off to our northeast, but the center of the high will drop a little further south Sunday helping to increase the moisture for us and improving our rain chances. By the middle of the week, however, it looks like we should return to a more typical pattern with daily afternoon and evening showers. But we’ll also be watching in earnest as Ana could be approaching South Florida. At that point, the strength of the upper ridge will play a big role in Ana’s future track.

Main severe weather focus will be across the North Central US which is climatologically their severe weather season. Of course, if Ana does approach South Florida by the latter part of the week, then there will also be a risk for severe storms there, too.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) or Tropical Prediction Center is beginning to get busy as we approach the busiest time of the hurricane season. They are watching three areas this morning. The clouds in the Bahamas are not expected to amount to much.

About 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands is Ana, our first named storm for the 2009 season. Ana is just barely a tropical storm and is forecast to stay a tropical storm for the next five days. She will gradually get stronger, and she might be getting close to hurricane status by the end of the week as she moves through the Bahamas based on the current forecast. The Atlantic ridge is expect to guide Ana with recurvature along the Atlantic coast. It will be critical to watch how the ridge develops since a stronger ridge could maintain a more westerly course for Ana and nudge the storm more into Florida or perhaps the eastern Gulf. Should the ridge be a bit weaker, then recurvature could occur a tad earlier and keep Ana from becoming a threat to the US coastline. Definitely a stay tuned situation.

Behind Ana is a very large mass of disturbed weather which could become a depression later today. This one certainly appears likely to become a named storm within a day or two. Like Ana, the ridge to the north is likely to steer the storm westward with it becoming a threat to the Southeast US by next weekend. The just adds doubly to the stay tuned theme.

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I anticipate having the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am Sunday morning. Stay with the Blog for updates as the tropics have gotten active. I hope you have a great Saturday. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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