Paulette Strengthens Into a Hurricane; Deteriorating Conditions Expected to Start on Bermuda by Sunday Evening

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
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LOCATION…28.9N 59.7W
ABOUT 385 MI…615 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…981 MB…28.97 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 59.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwest or northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late Sunday and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 981 MB (28.97 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength Sunday afternoon or evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will likely bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical