Beta Moving a Little Faster Toward the Texas Coast

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

…BETA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARDS THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST…
…EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…27.9N 95.7W
ABOUT 55 MI…90 KM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM SSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.42 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 95.7 West. Beta is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast are expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas today and will likely move inland by tonight. Beta is forecast to remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Data from the aircraft and Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A Texas TCOON observing site at Port O’Connor, Texas, has recently measured a wind gust to 40 mph (65 km/h). A NOAA buoy located just east of Galveston, Texas, has reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 43 mph (66 km/h) during the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 996 MB (29.42 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

* San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay…3-5 ft
* Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay…2-4 ft
* Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake…2-4 ft
* Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas…1-3 ft
* Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay… 1-3 ft
* The mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX…1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning in portions of the tropical storm warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area later today.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding are likely, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur today and tonight, near the middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical