At 4:00 pm: Delta Restrengthens Into a Major Hurricane

SUMMARY OF 4:00 PM CDT INFORMATION

LOCATION…24.8N 93.4W
ABOUT 345 MI…555 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…959 MB…28.32 INCHES

WATCHES & WARNINGS

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

DISCUSSION & OUTLOOK

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 93.4 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected this evening. A turn toward the north is forecast to occur late tonight, followed by a north-northeastward motion Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the western Gulf of Mexico this evening, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and then move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or Friday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible tonight. Some weakening is possible as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 959 mb (28.32 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay…7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA…5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA…4-7 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River…3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake…3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass…2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS…2-4 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas…2-4 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…1-3 ft
Sabine Lake…1-3 ft
Port O’Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay…1-3 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure, or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas on Friday, and are possible in the tropical storm watch area Friday night.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: There is a risk of a few tornadoes beginning late tonight and continuing through Friday over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of thenorthern and western Gulf coast during the next several hours. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical