Midday Nowcast: Unseasonably Warm and Watching Eta

| November 6, 2020 @ 12:12 pm

UNSEASONABLY WARM, MAINLY DRY: Continued warm weather highlights the forecast for the rest of today and through the weekend. It looks to remain dry, with the exception of a few showers across South Alabama over the weekend. Expect a partly to mostly sky at times, with highs generally in the mid 70 for most North/Central Alabama communities today, with mid to upper 70s over the weekend. Those are 5-10 degrees above average for this time of year. Lows will be in the 50s tomorrow morning, and low 60s early Sunday, again, well-above average for this time of year.

KEEPING AN EYE ON ETA: Eta is back over the Caribbean waters and is re-intensifying and should become a Tropical Storm later today. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are approaching the system and will provide better details on the system later today as well.

The center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 86.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph. A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are expected this afternoon, with this motion continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near central or western Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again this afternoon or tonight, with further strengthening likely through early Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

The latest NHC forecast takes the system over Cuba Sunday, and then it takes a left turn, moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday, and then from there, where does it go…the models differ of course, with some turning Eta northeast, impacting mainly the Florida Peninsula, while others show more of a track towards the Panhandle, again too early to tell. A front will be moving into Alabama by midweek, and that could help turn to storm eastward, but we will have to wait and see if that will happen. We do note, sea surface temperatures continue to cool over the northern Gulf, so this shouldn’t be a major hurricane, likely a tropical storm, but again too early to know for sure. The main impact will be from heavy rain, most likely, along and east of the track. We will have much better clarity on the ultimate destination of the system over the weekend.

BEACH FORECAST CENTER: Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Fort Morgan to Panama City on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region that you are interested in visiting.

WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 111.2F at Fitzroy Crossing Aero, Australia. The lowest observation was -70.1F at Dome A, Antarctica.

CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation was 100F at Chino, CA. The lowest observation was 15F at Peter Sinks, UT.

WEATHER ON THIS DATE IN 1951: Snow fell from the Texas panhandle to the Lower Great Lakes, leaving record totals of 12.5 inches at Saint Louis MO, and 14.1 inches at Springfield MO. Other heavier snowfall totals included 20 inches at Nevada MO, 13.5 inches at Sedan KS, 13 inches at Decature IL, and 10 inches at Alva OK. In the Saint Louis area, up to 20 inches was reported in Washington County.

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Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS

About the Author ()

Montgomery Television Meteorologist and long time Contributor on AlabamaWX. Stormchaser. I did not choose Weather, it chose Me. College Football Fanatic. @Ryan_Stinnet

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