Tropical Storm Eta is Approaching the Cuban Coast Tonight; Will Impact South Florida Starting Tomorrow Night

The center of Tropical Storm Eta is approaching the Cuban coast tonight. It will make landfall around midnight and make the short transit across the island nation before daybreak.

Top winds are 65 mph.

The storm will turn to the northwest on Sunday and by early Monday, it will be approaching South Florida, nearing the Upper Keys.

The storm should be able to maintain its intensity as a strong tropical storm, with some chance that it could become a hurricane before reaching South Florida. But South Floridians will need to wrap up preparations for at least a 70 mph tropical storm by the end of tomorrow as tropical storm force winds will arrive there between 8 p.m. and midnight tomorrow night. Tropical Storm Warnings, a Hurricane Watch, and a Storm Surge Watch cover both coasts, basically from Jupiter to Bonita Springs.

Here are the official U.S. watches and warnings:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Florida coast from Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including
Florida Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Florida coast from north of Jupiter Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia
county line
* Florida coast from north of Bonita Beach to Englewood

Storm surge could reach 2-4 feet across southern Florida and 1-3 feet all the way to the Georgia Coast.

The storm will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday where it is expected to slow and gradually weaken. There is a lot of uncertainty in the track, and this forecast will have to be revised almost certainly. It could end up going northeast and crossing the Florida Peninsula, or it could move northward ad reach the northern or northeastern Gulf Coast late in the week as a weak subtropical or hybrid storm.

I think that the most likely course is a landfall somewhere between Panama City and Cedar Key late Thursday or Friday, moving northeast into the Mid-Atlantic as a weak low.

The rip current risk has increased along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida and that will continue through Monday afternoon. While not associated with the tropical storm, but rather the winds associated tightening pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. Later this week, winds will increase along the coast, reaching 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Those winds could reach into southeastern Alabama. Rain will increase Tuesday and Wednesday across Alabama ahead of an approaching trough and rain could increase again by Friday and Saturday if the system takes a more westerly track and interacts with an approaching front.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical