Birth of a Monster: Hurricane Katrina (2005)

THIS IS A HISTORICAL GRAPHIC FROM 2005. HURRICANE BILL IS PASSING NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AND IS NO THREAT TO THE U.S.

The synoptic events that led to Hurricane Katrina are quite complex. Tropical depression ten weakened well east of the Leeward Islands on August 14th. The low level circulation continued northwestward and eventually dissipated north of Cuba. But a mid-level circulation remained. By the 19th, it was producing showers and thunderstorms north of Puerto Rico. This activity continued slowly westward and began to get organized by the 22nd over the southeastern Bahamas.

Based on reports from an Air Force reconnaissance plane, observations from the Bahamas and ship reports, the system was considered well enough organized to classify it as a tropical depression. Immediately, there was confusion over what it should be named. Was it tropical depression ten? Was it a new system? Based on the uncertainty, it was christened tropical depression twelve and advisories were started at 5 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, August 23, 2005.

The official five day forecast track issued by the National Hurricane Center with the first advisory indicated that the depression would become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Southeast Florida Thursday evening. Because there was a threat that tropical storm force winds could reach South Florida within 36 hours, a tropical storm watch was issued on the 11 p.m. EDT advisory.

There was quite a bit of uncertainty about the track and intensity forecast for the system. From these inauspicious beginnings came a monster that would lead to the worst hurricane disaster in history, albeit a man-made one to great extent.

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