Midday Update: “High Risk” Expanded; Severe Weather Outbreak Imminent

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IMMINENT: A very dangerous and life-threatening tornado outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes is about to occur across the Deep South including portions of Mississippi and Alabama. Be ready to take immediate action as large hail, destructive winds to 80mph and tornadoes, some violent, long-track ones will occur. Currently temperatures are surging into the 70s and 80s across the state, along with very gusty winds of 25-35 mph not associated with storms, and a wind advisory is in effect.

A PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch is now in effect until 8PM for much of North and Central Alabama.

PLACEMENT: Midday update from SPC expands the “high risk” (level 5/5) up for much of Central Alabama and now includes Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Gadsden, with a “moderate risk” (level 4/5) down to Anniston to Selma to Jackson. The “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) extends as far south as Alexander City, Montgomery, and Monroeville. With the other risk levels farther to the south and east.

Again, don’t focus don’t focus on the lines or colors on the maps, just know, that all of Alabama is under the threat for severe storms the rest of today. It doesn’t matter to the storms, they can produce a tornado in a “marginal risk” area just like they can in a “high” or “moderate risk” area.

THE SETUP: A very dynamic storm system with a negatively tilted upper air trough is causing the surface low to deepen as it approaches Alabama. A very warm, unstable, and volatile atmosphere is in place due surging instability values, strong wind fields aloft, high shear values, and steep lapse rates, providing an environment very favorable for explosive thunderstorm development across Alabama and the Deep South.

THREATS: Thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds up to 80 mph, and tornadoes. Some violent, long-track tornadoes are very possible, especially in the “high” and “moderate risk” areas, but again, all of Alabama is under the threat for severe storms during this event.

TIMING: From now through midnight tonight, is when the core threat for severe storms will be across Northwest, West, and Central Alabama.

FLOODING: With recent rain and more expected, there will be some issues with flooding and flash flooding. The heaviest rain with this event will come over the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama, where some places could see 2-4 inches of rain, for the rest of the state, amounts elsewhere will be around 1-2 inch range. But some locations, as we have already seen this morning, could receive higher amounts.

CALL TO ACTION: Be ready to act immediately…Have multiple, reliable ways to receive severe weather alerts, NEVER, ever, ever rely on a siren. Every Alabama home and business needs a NOAA Weather Radio (the most popular model is the Midland WR-120, which is sold in most local big box retailers). The other way is your phone… be sure emergency alerts are enabled (look under settings, and notifications), and install the free ABC 33/40 Weather app.

Know the safe place in your house, and in that safe place have helmets for everyone. Bicycle helmets and batting helmets work well. We also recommend portable air horns and hard soled shoes for everyone. If you live in an apartment complex, you can’t be above the first level. Shelter with a friend on the ground level, or ask management if they can open the clubhouse during a tornado warning.

If you live in a mobile home, you can not stay there during a tornado warning, they offer little to know protection from severe storms. Know the location of the nearest shelter, or business that is open 24/7. Know how to get there quickly.

BE A HERO: You can help us. Tell your friends, neighbors, and relatives about the threat, and what they need to do to get ready. And, if they fall in a tornado warning polygon, call them or text them to let them know about the threat. You are our most valuable resource in spreading the word!

Many of you have anxiety about severe weather, especially those that have gone through tornadoes or other kinds of violent weather. Have comfort knowing that even on the biggest severe weather days, odds of any one home being hit by a tornado are very low. But, you have to pay attention and be prepared. We will get through the day together.

TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: Tomorrow will be dry with a partly to mostly sunny sky; the high will be in the upper 70s. A warm front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to the state Saturday; SPC has a “slight risk” (level 2/5) defined for parts of the Tennessee Valley, where a few storms could produce hail and strong gusty winds during the afternoon and evening hours. For now we are not expecting a tornado threat. Showers are likely Sunday as the front moves southward again as a cold front. The high Saturday will be in the low 80s, followed by mid 70s Sunday.

INTO NEXT WEEK: Showers could linger into Monday over South Alabama…Tuesday looks rain-free. Then, a cold front will bring a band of showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night, but for now severe storms are not expected.

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Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather