Widespread Damaging Winds & A Small Tornado Threat Remains for the Southern Portions of the Area

Damaging winds and a brief tornado or two remain possible with the line of storms that in moving through the western parts of the area south of the I-20/59 corridor, while north of that, very heavy rain and thunderstorms with gusty winds will be likely. Here is the text from the latest Mesoscale Discussion from the SPC:

SUMMARY… A widespread damaging wind threat will continue with a bowing line of storms moving eastward. Isolated embedded tornadoes also remain possible.

DISCUSSION… A well-organized bow will move quickly eastward late this afternoon from southeastern LA/southern MS into southern/central AL over the next couple of hours. The most progressive portion of this line is advancing around 40-45 kt into west-central AL as of 2145Z. Other storms have formed along an outflow boundary extending from near Tuscaloosa to just south of Birmingham to near Auburn AL. This outflow boundary will likely serve as the northern limit to any substantial severe threat. Given the current intensity of the bowing complex, the presence of moderate to locally strong instability downstream (MLCAPE generally 2000-2500 J/kg), sufficient deep-layer shear, and steepened low-level lapse rates from diurnal heating, widespread severe/damaging winds of 60-70+ mph will remain the primary severe threat in the short term. Although low-level winds are not very strong ahead of the ongoing severe convection, up to 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH may still support some potential for embedded low-level circulations and a brief/isolated tornado threat.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather