Elsa Continues On a West-Northwestward Trek Across the Eastern Caribbean Sea

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…14.4N 65.1W
ABOUT 475 MI…765 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 810 MI…1305 KM ESE OF KINGSTON, JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 30 MPH…48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port-au-Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of Haiti north of Port-au-Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 65.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A decrease in forward speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Saturday. Slow weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday as Elsa interacts with Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northern Leeward Islands for the next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas…

Southern coast of Cuba…4 to 6 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola…2 to 4 feet
Jamaica…1 to 3 feet

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, this evening. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall with decrease across this area by early Saturday morning.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts of 5 inches, is expected tonight into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.

By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical