10 am Update: Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for Parts of the Florida Keys Ahead of Elsa

SUMMARY OF 10 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…18.7N 76.8W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM N OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* Jamaica
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban province of Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* The southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach

FORECAST DISCUSSION & OUTLOOK
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 76.8 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected today or tonight. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba today, and approach central Cuba tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on Monday and pass near the Florida Keys late Monday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today and tonight as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur on Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some slight restrengthening is possible. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys and the southwest coast of Florida by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas…

Southern coast of Cuba…3 to 5 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL…1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay…1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches are expected through today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida early next week.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical