7 pm Update: Elsa Over Southern Georgia Producing Gusty Winds and Very Heavy Rain

SUMMARY OF 7 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…31.4N 82.7W
ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 82.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward northeast is expected overnight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.

Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles (160 km) generally southeast of the center near the Atlantic coast. A WeatherFlow station on Jekyll Island, Georgia recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches) based on surface observations.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week:

Across northern portions of the Florida Peninsula…additional 1 to 3 inches through tonight, with storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches. Localized maximum storm totals up to 12 inches across southwest Florida. Additional heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with continued rises to minor and isolated moderate flood.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible this evening into Thursday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia…1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday night, which could lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This could lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should move into the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday.

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Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical