7pm Update: Flash Flooding Threat From Elsa Continues Especially for the Mid-Atlantic States Into New England

SUMMARY OF 7 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…36.8N 77.4W
ABOUT 65 MI…105 KM W OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 240 MI…385 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 77.4 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states tonight, and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km),
well to the southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow weather station on Alligator Bridge in Dare County, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) gusting to 51 mph (81 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches) based on nearby surface observations.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the North Carolina coast and along the mid-Atlantic coast later this evening. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week:

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England…2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia and eastern Maryland through this evening. The threat for a tornado or two will continue through late tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.

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Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical