The Outer Rainbands of PTC-6 Are Moving Over the Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…16.6N 64.8W
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 220 MI…350 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1012 MB…29.89 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 64.8 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight, be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. Squalls with winds to tropical-storm force are occuring over portions of the northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days… high…90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

• Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico…2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
• Over the northern Windward Islands…1 to 3 inches.
• Over the Dominican Republic…3 to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical