1 pm Advisory — Center of Nicholas Moving East-Northeastward Over the Southern Parts of Metropolitan Houston

| September 14, 2021 @ 1:11 pm

NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.

LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
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LOCATION…29.4N 95.0W
ABOUT 30 MI…55 KM SE OF HOUSTON, TEXAS
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM WSW OF PORT ARTHUR, TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* High Island, Texas to Sabine Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* High Island, Texas to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Sabine Pass to Cameron Louisiana

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 95.0 West. Nicholas is moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion should continue through tonight. An eastward turn is expected over Louisiana by Wednesday. Little motion is anticipated on Thursday.

NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the storm is forecast to become a tropical depression by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A TCOON observing station at Texas Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, recently measured a 1-minute sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) while a NOAA Ocean Service observing station at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) based on nearby surface observations.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches across southern Louisiana. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across these regions.

Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and Mississippi.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

High Island, TX to Cameron, LA…2-4 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island, TX…1-3 ft
Galveston Bay…1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA…1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the Louisiana coast into this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions in the warning area across the upper Texas coast will diminish this afternoon as Nicholas moves farther to the east.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into tonight across southern Louisiana.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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