Rain Knocking Again

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October is climatologically our driest month of the year, however, at this moment, it looks like the first full week of October is going to be rather wet. In fact, looking at radar the rain was moving in. But much of what you see on radar in Alabama is probably not reaching the ground. The radiosonde run from last night shows a rather dry layer from 900 millibars to 500 millibars. While it is possible to see some sprinkles under the echoes in Alabama this morning, the bulk of it will evaporate before reaching the ground. This will saturate the air from above so later this afternoon and overnight the rain will fall through a wet atmosphere. Temperatures today should be held down with the clouds to the lower 70s.

Tonight as the overrunning/isentropic lift get set up thanks to the front lying along the Gulf Coast, we could see extended periods of rain, and some of that rain could be heavy. I do not expect to see any flash flood watches with this round of rain, but watches may be possible with the next round on Wednesday.

TD Olaf along with a persistent southwesterly flow aloft will bring Pacific moisture into the Southeast US making for a rainy Sunday night and much of the first half of Monday. We may see a bit of a break on Tuesday before another slug of moisture gives us a wet Wednesday. And I think it is possible Monday that we don’t get out of the 60s.

Rainfall for the next 48 hours is likely to produce amounts of 1 to 2 inches. While some spots will get heavier rain, this could be a relatively even distribution of rain. Another round of rain on Wednesday will add to these totals. Guess I may have to start looking at wet October records.

The closed low in the Southwest US weakens and kicks out toward the end of the week providing us with another round of wet weather primarily on Saturday with the passage of a cold front.

Tropics are quiet with one area of cloudiness in the Atlantic being watches. The Pacific is quiet, too, outside of Olaf. And the SPC is watching Southeast Texas for the potential for severe weather though they have not defined a slight risk area.

Voodoo country shows another wet day or two around the 15th of October and then a change to much colder weather. But remember that is a long way out.

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Thanks for tuning in to the Weather Xtreme Video. I had a great time in Oxford yesterday at OxfordFest and getting some errands accomplished. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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