One More Round Of Showers And Storms

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ONE MORE DAY: One last short wave will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms to Alabama today. SPC has a slight risk of severe weather defined for parts of Louisiana, South Mississippi, and Southwest Alabama. We will be watching during the day to see if unstable air over South Alabama can work northward, but for now it seems like the best chance of severe storms will be south of us. Additional rain amounts of 1/2 inch are likely today, with isolated amounts to one inch. It should not be enough to generate additional flooding problems. The high today will be in the 70 to 74 degree range.

OCTOBER CHILL: Showers will end this evening, followed by a shot of very chilly air; the coolest so far this season. We will drop into the upper 40s early tomorrow, and temperatures won’t move much all day tomorrow with a brisk north wind and lingering clouds. The GFS is out to lunch with a high of 63; the NAM is ten degrees cooler with 53, and is probably pretty close to the truth. It will be a raw day.

Not much change on Saturday; we won’t get out of the 50s, a chilly wind continues, and the day will feature a mostly cloudy sky. We might even see a shower or two pop up on radar with a very strong vort max rotating through the base of the long wave upper trough over the eastern U.S. providing very strong upward motion in the atmosphere. But, moisture is very limited, so rain should not be a big deal. But be aware a few raindrops are not out of the question Saturday. The sky will clear Saturday night as the trough axis shifts to the east.

LOOKING FOR 30s: The latest GFS is printing 36 degrees for Birmingham Sunday morning; our ongoing forecast has 39, and I think we will probably adjust it down a degree or two. Winds will continue Saturday night, so I don’t expect too much frost Sunday morning. But, Monday morning the wind will be calm, and the valleys and cold spots will have a chance of approaching the freezing mark with frost.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: You will need a jacket for the high school football games tomorrow night. The kickoff temperature will be close to 50 degrees, with temperatures falling into the upper 40s by the final whistle. The sky will be cloudy, but there is no significant chance of rain. On Saturday, Alabama hosts South Carolina for homecoming at the Capstone; the sky will be mostly clear at kickoff (6:45 p.m.) with a temperature close to 49 degrees; expect mid 40s by the final whistle. Auburn hosts Kentucky (6:30 p.m. kickoff) with similar conditions; the temperature will be around 50 at kickoff, falling into the 40s during the game. The sky will be clear. UAB will travel to Oxford, Mississippi to play Ole Miss Saturday night (6:00 p.m. kickoff)… the sky will be clear with a kickoff temperature of 49 degrees, falling into the mid 40s by the fourth quarter.

NEXT WEEK: A warming trend begins Monday afternoon as we get close to 70, and the weather should remain dry on Monday and Tuesday. Rain will return to Alabama at some point during the latter half of the week; the 00Z GFS is suggesting the best chance will come Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but confidence in timing is low due to model madness.

STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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