Mesoscale Discussion — Isolated Severe Threat Continues; Watch Unlikely to be Issued

The severe weather threat remains to be isolated, and the SPC’s Mesoscale Discussion mentions that a severe weather watch is unlikely to be issued at this time. Here is the text from that discussion…

SUMMARY… Isolated strong to damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado may occur this afternoon. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION… A line of shallow convection along/near a cold front will continue moving eastward across the Southeast this afternoon. While a moist low-level airmass is present ahead of this line across AL/GA, multiple inversions and poor lapse rates aloft are limiting instability, with MLCAPE mostly 750 J/kg or less across the warm sector. With additional modest diurnal heating this afternoon, MLCAPE has locally increased up to around 1000 J/kg across parts of southern AL. Enough deep-layer shear is present to support storm organization, but low-level flow is expected to continue weakening/veering as the primary upper trough moves northeastward and away from the Southeast. Still, in the short term, there may be a window of opportunity for isolated strong to damaging winds to occur with small bowing segments in the line. Occasional weak low-level rotation has also been noted with convective elements over the past couple of hours, and a brief tornado remains possible. The overall severe threat should remain rather isolated this afternoon.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather