Latest Mesoscale Discussion — Severe Threat Continues Across Tornado Watch Locations
SUMMARY… Some threat for damaging wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes will continue into western Alabama this afternoon. The threat will generally be greater in west-central Alabama where moisture/buoyancy is greater.
DISCUSSION… Storms within central/eastern Mississippi have largely remained linear this afternoon. There are some discrete cells ahead of the primary line. The most substantial of these discrete storms is moving northeast through Kemper County, MS and has recently shown a TDS on KDGX radar. The overall expectation is for these cells to be overtaken by the line in the next 60-90 minutes. Going forward, wind damage and QLCS tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats as convection moves into western Alabama. The environment ahead of the convective line has been able to warm to near 80 F in several places. However, moisture return in Alabama has been much less than in Mississippi. Consequently, MLCAPE values have remained from 300-400 J/kg in northern Alabama to 500-700 in west-central Alabama. Due to the forward speed of the line, it is uncertain how much further destabilization can occur through the afternoon. In any event, some potential for damaging wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes will exist given the strong low-level winds and low-level hodograph turning observed in region VWPs.
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