Sunday Weather Xtreme — Dry Through Tuesday; Storms Move in Late Wednesday

A DECENT END TO THE WEEKEND: After the freeze warning and frost advisories expire this morning, temperatures will actually start to make a nice rebound. We’ll have a mix of sun and cloud, but rainfall will be no where close by. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 50s in the northwestern parts of the area to the lower 70s down in the southeast.

A BIG WARM-UP BEFORE STORMS HIT ON HUMP DAY: Ridging moves into the area on Monday, that will start a great warming trend for the first half of the work week. We’ll be dry, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to the lower 80s from northwest to southeast. We’ll really start to get a flow out of the south and southwest on Tuesday that will raise our highs and the humidity levels across the area. We’ll continue to stay dry, with highs reaching the upper 70s to the mid 80s.

Much of the daylight hours on Wednesday will be dry across the area, but rain chances begin to rise during the late afternoon and through the evening hours as a surface low and shortwave will move across Central Alabama. Rain and storms will become likely by evening, and a few strong to severe storms will be possible. Early indications show that this activity may come across as a squall line, which would make damaging winds and a brief spin-up tornado the main threats. However, we are still too far out from when the high-resolution models would come into view, so we’ll have to wait another day before we can really determine the exact timing, threats, and magnitude of this system.

The SPC currently has nearly all of the western half of Central Alabama under a 30% probability (equal to an Enhanced Risk) on their Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook. Much of the rest of the area is in the 15% probability (equal to a Slight Risk) for severe weather.

We’ll also have to watch for the threat of flash flooding once again, as heavy rain will be possible. Projected rainfall totals may exceed 2.50 inches in some locations. We’ll have updates throughout the rest of the weekend, and James Spann will have a good look at this system on Monday morning. Wednesday’s highs will be in the upper 70s to the mid 80s.

QUIET & COOLER TO END THE WORK WEEK:
By Thursday morning, only the southeastern portions of Central Alabama will see lingering showers and storms from the exiting system, while the rest of the area will start to see clearing skies and much drier weather. Highs will be in the upper 60s to the lower 80s. Friday is April Fool’s Day, but there will be no foolin’ in this forecast. Skies will be mainly sunny, with highs in the upper 60s to the upper 70s.

HOW ABOUT NEXT WEEKEND?
A disturbance will be moving across the southeast on Saturday that will bring a chance of showers and storms to the area, with much of the activity occurring south of I-20. That activity will be out of here by Sunday, and we’ll be dry with mild temperatures. Highs will be in the mid 60s to the mid 70s on both days.

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