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Midday Nowcast: Rain and Storms Increase in Coverage this Afternoon

| June 27, 2022 @ 10:42 am

The upper-ridge has slid back to the west, allowing a pattern change and producing more active weather for Alabama this week. Humidity values will be high each day, but afternoon highs this week will be mostly in the mid to upper 80s for Central Alabama, with some low 90s down south.

We have a weak boundary slowing dropping south through the state; it along with lots of moisture will allow for numerous showers and storms across the Alabama landscape this week.

Rain and storms are possible at anytime, we are seeing these now in East Alabama, but the greatest coverage will come during the afternoon and evening hours, between 2PM and 10PM. The chance of any one spot getting wet each day is 40-60 percent if you like the numbers game, but it won’t rain everywhere every day, but mostly places stand a good chance of seeing several downpours during the week ahead.

Summer storms can pack a punch; the main issue is lightning. Remember, “when thunder roars get indoors”… when you hear thunder, go inside (or into a vehicle) even if it is not raining. Also, they can produce tropical downpours which can lead to areas of isolated flash flooding, plus it is not entirely out of the question to have a few severe storms along the way this week, with gusty winds the main threat. It is very hard to know exactly where storms will occur, you just have to watch radar trends through the day.

FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND: The weather won’t change much over the long holiday weekend. You will see some sun at times Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, but from time to time a passing shower or storm is likely, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be mostly in the upper 80s.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge will try and rebuild, so afternoon highs will likely rise into the low 90s by the middle and end of next week. Partly sunny days, afternoon and evening storms become more widely scattered.

IN THE TROPICS: Three areas of interest the NHC is monitoring…

1. A tropical wave located about 900 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Interests in the Windward Islands and along the northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of these areas later today. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday. Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent. This should become Bonnie in the coming days.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico during the next few days. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

3. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

BEACH FORECAST CENTER: Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Fort Morgan to Panama City on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region that you are interested in visiting.

WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 124.5F at Bandar-E-Dayyer, Iran. The lowest observation was -102.8F at Concordia, Antarctica.

CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation was 119F at Death Valley, CA. The lowest observation was 24F at Peter Sinks, UT.

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About the Author ()

Mobile, Alabama Television Meteorologist and long time Contributor on AlabamaWX. Stormchaser. I did not choose Weather, it chose Me. College Football Fanatic. @Ryan_Stinnet

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