A Cold, Wet Start To Wednesday

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RIGHT NOW: The weather is cold and wet over the northern half of Alabama. Birmingham is at 50 degrees with light rain falling; many of our Skywatchers are reporting temperatures in the 40s. I have 1.22″ of rain showing up since it started at my place in North Shelby County… some other Skywatcher rain reports so far (as of 5:30 a.m.)…

Gadsden 1.10″
Coker 1.29″
Springville 1.09″

TO THE SOUTH: The warm sector is trying to move inland; Mobile has a temp/dewpoint of 61/59, and a line of strong storms is moving through South Alabama and the Florida panhandle, where a tornado watch is in effect until 10:00. The real surface based instability, however, remains offshore. That warm sector should move inland later today as the surface low moves from near Baton Rouge to Huntsville, and deepens fairly rapidly.

REST OF THE DAY: A few periods of rain will continue today, and we are still projecting storm totals averaging 1 to 2 inches in this part of Alabama. We might see some elevated thunder, but the severe weather threat for the rest of the day should remain well to the south. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather today for areas south of a line from Mobile to Montgomery to Roanoke. The highest severe weather probabilities are over North and Central Florida, South Georgia, and the eastern part of the Carolinas.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: The weather will stay cold; computer models seem a little too warm. More than likely, we won’t get out of the 40s tomorrow and Friday with lingering clouds due to a persistent southwest flow aloft. A strong lobe will rotate through the base of the upper trough to the west of Alabama Friday, and spin up a surface wave in the Gulf of Mexico Friday night.

WHAT ABOUT SNOW? Watch the Weather Xtreme video for details; we really don’t see any reason for us to change our forecast, which mentions a chance of snow flurries here late Friday night into Saturday morning. But, like I have been saying all week, we really need to get today’s system out of here before we can deal with this situation with any serious degree of confidence. But, for now, the NAM, GFS, and the Canadian keep the deepest moisture to the south. I guess there could be a little accumulation on grassy areas over the higher terrain of East Alabama, but surface temperatures will be generally above freezing and for now it just doesn’t look like a big deal. But again, we will have a much better grasp on this tomorrow.

THE WEEKEND: After a few morning snow flurries Saturday, the rest of the weekend will be dry. The coldest morning will be Sunday morning when lows will be in the 28 to 32 degree range. Then, we rise into the low 50s Sunday afternoon.

NEXT WEEK: The parade of Gulf lows will continue. Some rain is possible as early as Monday night, but the big rain day next week seems to be on Wednesday. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for more details.

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J.B. will keep the blog updated with fresh information today; look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!

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