Midday Nowcast: Cool Monday, Storm Threat Down South Tomorrow Night

The clouds are giving way to a partly to mostly sunny conditions this afternoon. Most locations are in the 50s this afternoon, which is right on average for this time of year. Tonight, will be clear and cold with temperatures falling below freezing.

TOMORROW: It will be a partly sunny, but clouds increase late in the day and of a dynamic weather system that will bring rain, wind, and storms to Alabama late tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning. Expect highs tomorrow in the mid-50s for much of North/Central Alabama.

TOMORROW NIGHT: A potentially significant severe weather event could unfold across South Alabama tomorrow night. The SPC has defined an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms for the southwest corner of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, a “slight risk” (level 2/5) as far north as Thomasville, Greenville, and Enterprise. A “marginal risk” extends as far north as Birmingham, but severe storms are not expected over the northern half of the state.

THREATS: Storms across Southwest Alabama, and along the Gulf Coast tomorrow night could produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes (EF-2 or higher) are possible as well. Some hail could fall from stronger storms. The main tornado threat is in the enhanced risk, including Mobile, Baldwin, Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, and Escambia counties. Down that way, it all depends on the amount of instability that will move onshore as the overall dynamics with this system are incredibly high. It could be low impact event, or very high impact event. For North/Central Alabama, there will be basically no surface based instability, which will prevent a tornado threat there.

GRADIENT WIND: Gradient winds (not related to thunderstorms) are a concern statewide. Winds could gust to 40 mph in spots tomorrow night, maybe 50 mph on ridges. We are fully expecting wind advisories across Alabama with this system.

TIMING: The main window for the wind, rain, and storms will come from around 11PM tomorrow night through 7AM Wednesday. Unfortunately an overnight event for our friends in South Alabama.

RAIN: Rain amounts will be around 1 inch, with isolated heavier amounts possible. For now flooding issues are not expected. Rain will end from west to east very early Wednesday morning, but clouds will likely linger much of the day with temperatures in the 50s.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Colder air will drop into Alabama Thursday. A few snow flurries are possible over Tennessee Valley, but if we see a snow flake or two temperatures will be above freezing and there won’t be any impact. The high Thursday will be only in the lower to mid 40s over the northern half of Alabama. Friday will feature a good supply of sunshine with seasonal temperatures, low to mid 50s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be dry with highs in the 50s and 60s, but a disturbance has potential to bring rain back into the state Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be in the 50s. Unsettled weather looks to highlight our forecast for next week, with several rounds of rain possible Tuesday through Thursday.

BEACH FORECAST CENTER: Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Fort Morgan to Panama City on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region that you are interested in visiting.

WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 107.8F at Augrabies Falls, South Africa. The lowest observation was -64.8F at Curapca, Russia.

CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation was 86F at numerous locations across Florida. The lowest observation was -23F at Cokeville, WY.

Tags: ANC, featured

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS