Weather Drying Out

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It will continue to be chilly and cloudy today but the atmosphere is drying out – at least for Central Alabama. Clouds will hang in there today and there is some possibility with cold air advection underway that we might see a snow flake or two – that’s snow flurries – especially north and northeast of Birmingham. And the chill will stay with us on Sunday as once again afternoon high temperatures are not likely to get much higher than the middle 40s.

Monday should be an even better day. After a chilly start with lows around 28 to 31, we should see lots of sun with the afternoon highs climbing into the lower and mid 50s across our area.

As the surface high settles into the Northeast Gulf and a new upper trough begins to head our way from the Southwest US, moisture will begin to increase to our west late Monday and Tuesday. This will set the stage for another round of wet weather along with the potential for severe storms on Wednesday and into Thursday, Christmas eve.

The problem at this juncture centers on the differences in models. And those differences are focused on the surface low track. There continues to be a trend toward more closer agreement in the models, but these differences play havoc with confidence in the forecast. It is looking less likely that the storm system Christmas eve will produce a significant snow event for the Southeast US based on the current model output.

Based on the 06Z GFS model run, the surface low will track across the Mid South which would put Central Alabama into the warm sector. In fact, we could see highs climb in the 60s Wednesday if the low track is correct on the 06Z run. But come Christmas eve, it will be one of those anomalies where temperatures hold steady or fall during the day as strong cold air advection begins.

This then sets us up for several days of clouds and cold weather which could produce off and on snow flurries or perhaps some snow showers. This type of event is not likely to produce anything more than a dusting of snow, though I have seen some snow showers produce some nice snow bursts for short periods.

The cold stays with us well into next weekend before the warm up begins into the next week.

Rainfall amounts with the next system could be around 2 inches off to our northwest, however, the location of the heaviest rainfall will be dependent on the track of the surface low. Around here, my best projections at the moment are around one inch of rain.

Looking briefly into voodoo country, the southern stream remains active with another surface low poised to come out of the Southwest. This one could be further south which opens the way for potential winter weather across the South. But that is pure speculation that far in advance.

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If you want to experience the Christmas story, Helena United Methodist Church has something for you. Tonight from 5 to 7 pm and again Sunday from 5 to 6:30 pm, Helena UMC will present “Journey to Bethlehem.” This program takes you, the visitor, on the Christmas story as you walk along a path where you experience various scenes that tell the story. Bundle up and come join us tonight or Sunday night for what can be a very moving way to experience the reason for the season. HUMC is locat Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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