Some Snow Thursday; Bitter Cold Friday/Saturday

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WATCH THAT VIDEO! I have drawn our first snow accumulation projection for Thursday’s event… take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video to see it; as we all know it is certainly subject to change, but we are within a window where there is decent skill at an accumulation forecast.

RIGHT NOW: After a quick check of the Skywatcher chat session, looks like most folks are in the 10 to 17 degree range at daybreak. John Talbot, who is in the Concord/Hueytown area, reports 11 degrees and is one of the colder spots. I am sure J.B. will post a long list of lows a little later this morning.

TODAY/TOMORROW: Cold and dry weather is the story; we are forecasting a high in the mid 30s today and upper 30s tomorrow with a good supply of sunshine. Hopefully some of the colder pockets across North Alabama will indeed rise above freezing for at least a few hours.

THURSDAY’S SNOW: No doubt the deeper moisture Thursday with our wave will be over the southern half of the state. On the snow projection, I have opted to forecast a dusting to one inch for areas north of Birmingham, with potential for 1 to 2 inches in the general area from I-20 to U.S. 80, or between Birmingham and Montgomery. Certainly not everyone down there will see that, but the “sweet spot” where you find the best combination of moisture with needed critical thickness values will be in that region. Montgomery is on the borderline; it could be just a cold rain for them, or they could see 2 inches of snow. Below Montgomery it looks like mostly rain with some snow flakes mixed in. Again, watch the video to see the map.

So, this is no major winter storm, but something that could certainly put down snow snow on the ground. And, due to the very cold soil temperatures and bridge infrastructure, some icy travel is a very real possibility Thursday afternoon, Thursday night, and Friday morning. If you have to drive on elevated Interstate highways, or live in a place with hilly terrain, you might have some trouble getting to work or anywhere else you need to be, so be watching for updates.

To the northwest, the NWS in Memphis has issued a winter storm watch for a pretty good part of their CWA, where the moisture will be deeper. Some type of “winter weather advisory” most likely will be needed for the northern half of Alabama before we get to Thursday.

WHEN? It now looks like the best chance of snow will come during the day Thursday from 6:00 a.m. until 6:00 p.m.

So, our first forecast is out there; be watching for changes as we get closer to the event. While everybody likes to talk snow, the biggest story here remains the brutally cold air we will deal with after the passage of Thursday’s system.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Bitter cold takes over. Highs only in the 19 to 24 degree range Friday and Saturday with wind chill values near zero, and early morning lows between 8 and 12. We will continue to forecast an average low of 9 degrees at daybreak Saturday. Understand if there is a snow cover, it will be colder. This is dangerously cold weather for Alabama, and all precautions should stay in place for a severe cold wave through Sunday. Wives even need to bring in their husbands for this one.

NEXT WEEK AND INTO VOODOO LAND: We begin to moderate next week as temperatures rise into the low 40s Monday. Some rain is possible by the middle of next week; the GFS suggests the next major precipitation event will come at mid-month, around January 15, as rain. And, potentially heavy rain. But more cold air will come most likely later in the month as the AO remains strongly negative.

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We will keep the blog updated throughout the day, and my next Weather Xtreme video will be up by 3:30. Enjoy the day and STAY WARM!

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