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Gulf Low to Bring Rain to Much of Alabama

| November 14, 2023 @ 5:22 am


We’re getting off to a mostly cloudy start this morning across North and Central Alabama as moisture streams across the area from the southwest. The rain has taken its time moving into our area due to a drier, low level northeasterly flow. A surface low is organizing over the northwestern Gulf this morning. It will rotate toward the Central Gulf Coast over the next 36 hours and this will allow rain to spread into Mississippi and Alabama late this afternoon and tonight. Much of Northwest, Central, and South Alabama will have high rain chances tonight. Rainfall amounts are not so certain. It appears that there will be a fairly significant gradient for rainfall amounts across the state with around 1/3 of an inch over the Tennessee valley, to around 1/2-1 inch across North Central Alabama, to 1-1.5 inches across South Central Alabama, to over 2 inches over South Alabama. Rainfall amounts could be excessive along the Gulf Coast tomorrow and Wednesday.

END OF THE WEEK: As the surface low moves northward, it will run out of steam and weaken over the Southeast. This will allow the rain to diminish on Thursday and for some clearing on Thursday night, but it won’t last long and mostly cloudy skies will prevail on Friday. Meanwhile, wiht an upper low over FLorida, another surface low will will form off the coast of Southeast Florida and move northeast. This will keep a few showers in the forecast on Friday, especially over eastern sections of Alabama. Meanwhile, a cold front will be pushing into Alabama on Friday, but it will be low of moisture and rain chances will correspondingly be low.

TEMPERATURES: Highs today will be in the upper 60s across North and Central Alabama, with cooler temperatures over South Alabama, where the rain will be more widespread. Wednesday highs will be around 60F areawide with the clouds and rain. Highs Thursday and Firday will be in the middle and upper 60s. Lows will be in the 40s and lower 50s each morning through Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Dry air moves into the Deep South, and the weekend will feature mostly sunny pleasant days and fair cool nights. Highs generally in the 60s, lows mostly in the 40s.

INTO NEXT WEEK: There is a lot of uncertainty aorund the forecast in the early part of Week Two. A storm system will be approaching from the west, but the latest runs of the GFS has hinted that it might stay west of Alabama through Tuesday and weaken before it moves into the state Wednesday. That same tun indicates that a stronger system will roll through on Friday with rain and storms, moving out before the weekend. Either way, Thanksgiving looks dry now now.

IN THE TROPICS: Low pressure is expected to form in the southwestern Caribbean in the next 24 hours and could become a tropical depression by midweek. It is expected to begin moving northeast by Thursday and could become Tropical Storm Vince by laet Thursday or Friday as it moves toward Hispaniola. It will cross that island and emerge into the Atlantic north of the Dominican Republic by the weekend. There is some chance it could still become a hurricane by early in week two, but should be no threat to any land areas.

BEACH FORECAST CENTER: The weather is going to go downhill fast along the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida as the low pressure system in the Gulf intensifies. Winds will be increasing to 20-25 mph and seas will rise to 5-7 feet. The rip current risk will be high for the foreseeable future. Widespread heavy rainfall will affect the coast through Wednesday, diminishing by Thursday. The weekend looks nice. Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Fort Morgan to Panama City on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region that you are interested in visiting.

WEATHERBRAINS: Show 930 was a lot of fun last night with Ashley Gann, a local meteorologist who has traded in her green screen for the greener pastures of higher education as the Public Information Officer at Auburn University.

ON THIS DATE IN 1999: The twelfth named storm of the North Atlantic Hurricane Season formed in the Caribbean on this date. Within a few hours, Tropical Storm Lenny was upgraded to a hurricane, with maximum winds of 80 mph. The hurricane was moving eastward and was threatening the island of Jamaica.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS

About the Author ()

Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site's official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site's severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

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