Saturday Weather Video: Partly Cloudy with a Chance of Warnings

Friday was a warm and humid day across Alabama. A mesoscale convective system moved through the Tennessee Valley late in the morning. And its outflow boundary served to trigger additional storms during the afternoon. One of those storms briefly became severe over northern Tuscaloosa County at mid-afternoon, producing 1” hail at Samantha. Other storms moved across Mississippi, but our good ol’ Alabama Severe Weather Protection Force Field was operating at full strength. It knocked those evening storms to our west to their knees before they even approached our state. I hope it works for the rest of the holiday weekend as well.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF WARNINGS: Memorial Day in Alabama usually means a few storms. We even had an F4 tornado on Memorial Day weekend in 1973. You probably remember it. It destroyed the WSR-57 radar in Centreville and killed 5 people in Brent. We will deal with storms throughout the holiday weekend, including Monday. Let’s dig into the details.

ON THE WEATHER MAPS: Early this Saturday morning, a weak ridge of high pressure is over the Gulf of Mexico and its coastline. A big trough covers the western United States. In the zone between these two systems, a surface front extends from Seymour, Texas, to Texarkana, to Fort Wayne, Indiana, to Bay City, Michigan. A surface high is over southeastern Iowa. Today, the big upper trough will slide eastward into the Central Plains, triggering a big round of severe weather from Nebraska through Kansas and western Missouri through Oklahoma into the Red River Valley of Texas. The cooling aloft and strong wind shear will result in storms with a high probability of very large hail (hopefully NOT giant hail) and EF2 or greater tornadoes. An upper-level disturbance will slide along the larger scale trough today and tonight, providing support for convection that will develop in the warm and humid airmass from especially Mississippi across South Central Alabama into southern Georgia. Hey, that’s us! Some storms will bring strong to severe, perhaps even more so than yesterday. We will deal with damaging winds in the stronger ones. There is a small chance of larger hail and even a small possibility of a tornado. The CAPE certainly will support severe storms, lapse rates are decent, hail looks possible, and there is a little bulk shear. The curved hodographs even support a tornado potential, so don’t rule out anything. Remember what we say when It comes to thunderstorms in Alabama: expect the unexpected.

BUT FIRST, MORNING STORMS: Storms that developed over eastern Oklahoma and Texas last night are reaching the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama down into the I-20 Corridor. Hey, this looks a lot like yesterday. They may be wet and loud with some thunder, but they shouldn’t be severe. But they will lay down another outflow boundary that will be a focus for thunderstorm development by mid-morning. These storms could become strong or even severe from the I-20 Corridor southeastward through Central Alabama and into South Alabama later in the day.

ROUND TWO TODAY: Another batch of strong to severe storms will form over North and Central Alabama during the late afternoon, again bringing the threat of damaging winds, hail, and even a small chance of a tornado. Those storms should peak between 8-9 pm tonight and go downhill. Highs today will be in the middle and upper 80s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s North and East, and 70s elsewhere across the state.

SUNDAY’S WEATHER: The system on Sunday may support up to three rounds of strong thunderstorms, especially in areas to the north of Alabama. The day looks dry for now, warm, and very humid. Highs will be in the 89-92F range. The final line of storms will move into Alabama during the overnight hours. The storms could be strong to severe, especially the earlier they arrive. We will be watching.

HOW ABOUT MEMORIAL DAY? ARE MY OUTDOOR PLANS GOOD? The front will be approaching Alabama by Monday. It should push far enough south to cause the storms to fire out of the I-20 Corridor. They could again be strong to severe over South Central and South Alabama. Highs will be in the upper 80s.

FRONT LEADS TO FINE: Weather that is. Drier and slightly cooler air will be move into North and Central Alabama from Tuesday through Friday. This will make the warmth more comfortable for sure. Highs on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be in the lower to middle 80s. Dewpoints will be in the 50s through the end of the week. Enjoy.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Saturday looks dry. Finally, showers and storms return on Sunday. Humidity will start to rise, and temperatures will be in the middle and upper 80s both days.

TROPICS: Well, NOAA went out and busted everyone else’s forecast for the North Atlantic Hurricane Season. It’s not good news. They are forecasting 17-25 named storms (the average is 14). They predict 8-13 hurricanes. The average is 7. They forecast 4-7 major hurricanes. The average is 3. Well what do you do with that? It’s a good time to walk through your preparation if you have interests along the coastline. Check your insurance. Trim back overgrown trees that could threaten the property. Walk through your procedures if a hurricane threatens the coast. Currently, nothing threatening in the Atlantic except for a low southwest of Bermuda. Less than a ten percent chance that it will develop into anything.

BEACHCAST: A beautiful week is in store along the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. Highs will be in the middle 80s. Lows will be in the 70s. The rip current risk will be low to moderate into midweek. Water temperatures are in the lower 80s.

Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page.

DANCING WITH THE STATS: Bozeman MT dropped to 27F yesterday morning, breaking the old record of 28F.

WEATHERBRAINS: This week, the panel will entertain Master Beckett Moore, an amazing weather prodigy from Oklahoma. His parents are the epitome of how to foster a child’s interest in not just weather, but any discipine. Check out the show at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live on our new YouTube channel for the show.You will be able to see the show on the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.

ON THIS DATE IN 1955: Two tornadoes struck the town of Blackwell OK within a few minutes during the evening. 19 were killed and 500 injured. The same thunderstorm later produced a tornado that almost completely destroyed the town of Udall KS. 80 persons were killed in Udall along with 270 that were injured. The casualties constitute over half of the town’s population. This was the last tornado in the United States to cause 50 or more death in a single town before the Joplin tornado of 2011. A tornado watch had been in effect earlier in the evening, but it was cancelled about an hour an a half before the tornado struck the town at 10:30 p.m. The tornado destroyed the town’s new high school and the city water tower. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical