Winter Storm Potential Friday

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THIS MORNING: Snow flurries are flying over parts of Northeast Alabama this morning; we have had reports of flurries over parts of Blount, Etowah, and Cherokee Counties. This will end within the next couple of hours, and today will be cold with a high only in the low 40s. Where clouds persist, especially over the northeast counties of the state, some places won’t get out of the 30s. An icy northwest wind will make it feel colder. Tomorrow we stay dry, but clouds will increase during the day ahead of our Friday storm system.

FRIDAY’S SNOW: The buzz machine is in full force; be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video that has all of the graphics that support this discussion. Confidence is high that snow will fall across Alabama on Friday. As usual, the hard questions… how much, when, and where. Let’s see if we can get some answers…

MODELS: The Canadian GEM is a snow lover’s delight; it is the most aggressive model for snow here on Friday, suggesting amounts of 3 to 5 inches from around Alabama 22 (Selma to Clanton to Roanoke) south, and around 3 inches for Birmingham. But, the American models (GFS, NAM) keep everything far to the south, with snow confined to the Gulf Coast. The ECMWF remains a blend, and probably the best idea for now.

WHEN? Snow should move into Southwest Alabama early Friday morning, and become widespread over the southern half of the state by mid to late morning. The snow will then taper off Friday night, and everything should be over for most folks by 12:00 midnight.

WHERE AND HOW MUCH? For the I-20 corridor, including Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston, we are projecting around 1 inch of snow for now, with only light snow or flurries north of I-20, and just a dusting for the northern third of the state. The best accumulation should be around the U.S. 80 corridor, or a line from Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Auburn/Opelika, where 1 to 3 inches could accumulate. Snow accumulation is possible as far south as U.S. 84, or a line from Monroeville to Evergreen to Dothan. And, yes, snow flakes are possible for Mobile, Gulf Shores, Pensacola, and Destin, but no accumulation is expected on the immediate coast.

NOTES: If the Canadian GEM is correct, our snow accumulation forecast will be too low. And, based on climatology all of this might have to be moved northward at some point. Confidence in a winter storm for parts of Alabama is high, but confidence in the details remains rather low at this stage of the game due to the conflicting model output. I am not comfortable drawing an accumulation map this morning; I will do that later today and have it on the afternoon discussion.

OUR WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK: Saturday will be cold and dry, but we will need to mention a chance of light snow or snow flurries by Sunday afternoon thanks to a clipper coming down from the north. Then, very cold air settles in here early next week; we will have a hard time getting above freezing Monday, and it looks like we are headed for the teens by daybreak Tuesday. GFS MOS numbers are way too warm.

STORM ALERT 2010 IS COMING TO WALKER COUNTY TOMORROW NIGHT: Our annual severe weather rolls along; our next stop will be tomorrow night at Bevill State Community College in Sumiton. You can meet the ABC 33/40 Weather team, see some amazing Alabama weather stories, learn how to keep your family safe this tornado season, and win some cool stuff. The show begins at 7:00; be sure and get there early to get a good seat. See the entire tour schedule here!

LIVE CHAT: We are now offering a real time chat here on the blog… open blog comments will stay in place, of course, but this will allow a more immediate method of communication for weather geeks. We do have moderators posted over there, so be sure and play nice. Members of our weather team will be there from time to time to answer questions; we will post those times we are available here on the blog.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

This morning I am headed up to Gadsden for a weather program at Walnut Park Elementary; we will post some notes during the day, and the next full discussion and Weather Xtreme video by 3:30. Enjoy the day and stay warm!

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