Is it our turn? Part 5 Wednesday

As James points out below, it looks like the largest snowfall will be in south-central Alabama, in places like Montgomery, Opp, Troy, and Jackson. Surface lows tend to follow temperature gradients, and with there having been so much cold air already this year, allowing Gulf of Mexico water temperatures to fall into the 50s out to 50 miles or more, the normal thermal gradient that stays near the coast has been pushed a little farther south. This is a main reason why the snowfall is farther south than a “classic” winter storm in BHM. Also, an upper-level disturbance over Minnesota may help kick our main upper-level disturbance a bit southward.

However, the models seem to agree that there will be enough upper-level support for at least 1″ of snow as far north as Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston, with amounts increasing as you go south. It should be cold enough as far south as Demopolis and Troy as the precipitation begins Friday morning to be mostly snow. As the precipitation moves in Friday afternoon and evening, melting and evaporation may help change it over to snow as far south as Mobile and Dothan.

So, bottom line here is that there is still some uncertainty in the models, but the solutions seem to be pointing to a big snow event for Alabama. The sweet spot of cold air and moisture should be along a line near Demopolis, Opp, and Troy, where up to 3″ may fall (and if some models are correct, it could be 5″ in a few locations). This could be the biggest snow in SE Alabama in years. Expect a dusting of snow all the way to the Gulf Coast as the system moves out Friday night and colder air moves southward. Here in central Alabama, 1″ still looks like a good forecast. The cold air should be plenty deep enough, and the ground cold enough for snow to accumulate. Higher elevations may see 2″, and 2″ is also possible in extreme southern suburbs (Calera, Clanton, Montevallo, Greensboro, Mt. Cheaha).

With some uncertainty, BHM could go up to 2″ in later forecasts, or go down to a dusting. However, for areas between Clanton and Troy, I’d say the chance of accumulating snow is 80%. Assuming the current forecast stays on track, the snow could begin in Tuscaloosa by 6 or 7 am Friday, and move into BHM before lunchtime.

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