Snow For Alabama Friday

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THIS AFTERNOON: Temperatures are considerably below MOS guidance; the computer models always struggle with weather extremes; guidance had highs in the low to mid 40s today; it is hard to find anybody over 40 over the northern half of the state this afternoon. At 2:00 Birmingham was at 36 degrees with an icy northwest wind gusting to 14 mph. Up in Winston County, Haleyville is below freezing at 31.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: We will stay dry and cold; look for a low down in the mid 20s early tomorrow; we have a chance of reaching the low 40s tomorrow afternoon, but guidance still looks too warm.

SNOW DAY FRIDAY: Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics that go along with this discussion…

HOW MUCH AND WHERE? Still looks like a South Alabama snow event Friday, with some light accumulation possible as far north as I-20. As you can see from our map, we figure the best chance of better accumulation will be in South Alabama from U.S. 80 down to U.S. 84; I have drawn a broad 1 to 3 inch zone here which includes places like Montgomery, Greenville, Troy, Auburn, Eufaula, Ozark, and Camden. I think somebody in that zone has a chance of getting more than three inches, but there is no skill in identifying that area at this stage of the game.

For the I-20 corridor, we project just a dusting to one inch for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston, with only flurries to the north.

To the south, snow flakes could fall as far south as the Gulf Coast, but it will be mixed with rain there. Interesting to note the RPM shows some of the best snow accumulation in places not too far from I-10… Chatom, Bay Minette, Atmore, Brewton, etc.

WHEN? Snow should move into Southwest Alabama late tomorrow night, with the snow becoming widespread during the day Friday. All of the precipitation will be over by 9:00 Friday night.

The forecast is generally based on the European model, the ECMWF, which has shown the most consistency.

THINGS TO REMEMBER….

*During any southern snow event, there will always be surprises.
*Snow doesn’t accumulate along those nice straight lines we draw on the accumulation maps; we put those together for emergency managers and others that have to make plans well ahead of an event like this.
*Some will be severely disappointed in the amount of snow they see, while others will be delighted.
*This forecast can, and probably will change somewhat as Friday gets closer.

OUR WEEKEND: Saturday will be cold and dry, then we deal with a Clipper Sunday that will bring some light snow or snow flurries by afternoon, followed by very cold air early next week. If the 12Z GFS is correct, we won’t get out of the 20s here Monday and there will be snow flurries around. Wind chill index values could be in the single digits all day. Then, we stay cold and dry through mid-week with only a slow moderation.

STORM ALERT 2010 IS COMING TO WALKER COUNTY TOMORROW NIGHT: Our annual severe weather rolls along; our next stop will be tomorrow night at Bevill State Community College in Sumiton. You can meet the ABC 33/40 Weather team, see some amazing Alabama weather stories, learn how to keep your family safe this tornado season, and win some cool stuff. The show begins at 7:00; be sure and get there early to get a good seat. See the entire tour schedule here!

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I had a great time today visiting with the kindergarten kids at Walnut Park Elementary School in Gadsden; be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m tomorrow… updated as needed between now and then.

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