Forecast on Track

Not much change in thinking based on the morning model runs. The system is perhaps a little slower, with the main precipitation coming mainly after midnight, in phase with a quick temperature drop.

Rain will start over Northwest and West sections of the area during the evening, in the I-65 corridor by late evening and over East Alabama around midnight or a little later.

Temperatures at Birmingham at midnight may still be near 40F, but will be in the upper 20s by 6 a.m.

The rain will mix with and then changeover to snow, with the mix beginning around 10 pm in the west and northwest, around 1 a.m. in the I-65 corridor and little later in the east.

I would expect 2 hours of snow on average, with longer snow duration further to the north, especially over Northeast Alabama.

The GFS is outputting 0.31 inches of liquid equivalent between midnight and 6 a.m. This will produce about an inch, perhaps two of snow.

Snowfall amounts over Northeast Alabama could be heavier, in the 2-4 inch range northeast of Birmingham.

The precipitation will be convective in nature, with colder air quickly coming in aloft, so the it will be showery, and a lot of snow could come down quickly. This could lead to the snow sticking on roads and highways and means there could be travel problems during the early morning hours into mid-morning on Monday.

Check the latest updates and forecasts throughout the night if you plan to go anywhere late tonight or Monday morning.

Monday will be miserable: cloudy and cold, with temperatures hovering around freezing along with a biting NW wind. There will also be periods of snow flurries or light snow. Look for a hard freeze Monday night.

Category: Uncategorized