Winter Just Around the Corner – Again

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Fabulous certainly describes the weather we had in Central Alabama yesterday. The Birmingham airport recorded a high of 64 yesterday, the first 60+ reading in nearly a month and about 4 degrees above where we typically are for the middle part of February. And it looks like we should get in one more warm day with good sunshine for the first part of the day with clouds increasing this afternoon ahead of a storm system that should bring rain to the area tonight and early Monday.

Rain – on the order of one half to three-quarters of an inch – should edge into western Alabama after 9 pm tonight and continue marching across the state through the morning hours on Monday. This will mean a wet commute for Monday. As the upper short wave zips by, the rain should be mostly over by noon time. However, clouds will linger and with the clouds the possibility of some light rain or drizzle for the afternoon. As the rain exits, the cold air invades once again – please see Dr. Coleman’s excellent discussion below on the return to winter.

We stay mostly cold through the week though it does not appear to be extreme cold. We should once again see lows into the 20s during the Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday time frame with highs primarily in the 40s and lower 50s. The highs will be about 8 to 12 degrees below values we usually see.

A fast moving short wave that should phase up with a strong low that will cut off over the eastern US will give us some clouds Wednesday and perhaps a small chance at some rain or snow flurries, but the latest guidance is suggesting less moisture so many will remain dry. The cold, however, sticks with us into the weekend. And our next good chance for rain comes around the following Monday.

Looking well ahead, the GFS continues to show an active pattern with weather systems bringing us precipitation around March 5/6 and again March 8 as the southern stream remains busy with a steady stream of short waves.

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Thanks for staying tuned to the Weather Xtreme Video. I’m off to church shortly as this is my Sunday to usher. James Spann will be back first thing Monday with the next edition of the WXV. Enjoy the warmth and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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