The Name Game

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In my usual early morning sleepless state, I made up a name for the next four short waves that will impact Alabama’s weather. Guess I will stick with them since it makes it easier to identify them. And, good practice for hurricane season…

So, we take them one at a time.

ANDREW: Our lead wave has been producing snow over much of Texas today; scroll down for a few reports and pictures. Looks like the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex mostly missed out on this one; the heavier snow stayed south. The snow will move through parts of Louisiana this evening, and then into Mississippi tonight. The RPM is showing a little light accumulation potential along I-20 from Jackson to Meridian, but we really don’t expect much more than a dusting in our neighboring state.

Here in Alabama, we won’t change the forecast based on the 12Z model runs. Basically some risk of a little light rain late tonight, followed by some light snow or snow flurries tomorrow morning. The 12Z runs are pretty dry, so we don’t expect any accumulation or travel problems. Can we have a surprise? Of course. But, we see nothing for now to make us change the forecast. Tomorrow will be brisk and chilly with a high in the mid 40s; the GFS MOS products look too warm (they sure were too warm today!)

Thursday looks sunny but cold with a high in the mid to upper 40s. We should note that our pal Andrew will bring what could be an historic blizzard to New York City on Thursday… if you are headed up that way fair warning. This one looks like a whopper, with potential to shut down airports and make life miserable.

BERTHA: The second wave will bring a chance of snow to North Mississippi Friday afternoon. Like Andrew, the deepest moisture with this one will be over South Alabama, so for now we still don’t expect any major problems Friday night or Saturday morning. We will just mention a few periods of light snow or snow flurries. We also note the ECMWF and the Canadian are bone dry with no snow flakes at all across Alabama; the GFS remains an outlier to the north. But, systems have trended north this season from early model projections, so we will stick with the idea of Friday night/Saturday morning snow flurries. We might catch a little sunshine Saturday afternoon, but don’t count on it. The high Saturday will be in the 40s.

Sunday looks warmer, with a partly sunny sky and a high in the 50s.

CLARENCE: Our third wave blows in early next week with a strong surface low in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The 12Z GFS keeps the bulk of the heavier precipitation south of here, over the southern half of Alabama, but like recent systems, we figure the models will trend northward in coming days. For the snow lovers, I still think this is the one to watch. But, no way of resolving specific details this early in the game. Will the best snow come at Nashville, Atlanta, Birmingham, Montgomery, or Mobile? Nobody knows yet.

Cold air follows Clarence by Tuesday of next week, with a slow moderating trend beyond that.

LONG RANGE/DOLLY: As Dr. Tim notes in his morning post, the AO is forecast to flip positive by mid-March, for the first time since mid-November 2009. Seems like this will bring an end to the winter weather mischief, and open the door for the severe weather season to get cranked up. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the 12Z GFS shows a potent severe weather outbreak from wave Dolly around March 10-11, but that, needless to say, is voodoo at this point.

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I had a great time today visiting the 2nd graders at Meadow View Elementary in Shelby County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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