Strong Storms Late Tonight And Tomorrow

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HELLO SUN: So far today is going as expected. Rain taped off and moved out this morning, and we have enjoyed a partly sunny afternoon. The sunshine has pushed temperatures up into the 70s; Tuscaloosa leads the way with 76 degrees at 2:00. This, in turn, is bring surface based instability values up; surface based CAPEs are over 1,000 j/kg now over the western half of the state. Accordingly, we might see a few echoes showing up on radar during the next hour or two, but anything that forms should be widely spaced.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: Another band of thunderstorms is forecast to form west of Alabama tonight, in response to the next lobe rotating around the upper low to the north. These storms should enter West Alabama after midnight, and SPC has placed the western part of Alabama in their standard risk (slight risk) of severe weather for late tonight and the pre-dawn hours Friday.

Those storms will move eastward tomorrow morning, and SPC has about the eastern half of Alabama in a slight risk tomorrow. No doubt there will be a chance of hail with the stronger storms late tonight and tomorrow with very cold air aloft, and there also seems to be sufficient helicity in the low levels for rotating updrafts and isolated tornadoes.

The bottom line is that we will have a risk of strong to severe storms from about 2:00 a.m. until 3:00 p.m. Friday. We will keep close eye on developments and keep you posted here on the blog.

HOW MUCH RAIN? The last thing we need is more heavy rain with the ground saturated, and so many creeks and streams in flood. The NAM is printing 0.98″ for Birmingham through 84 hours, while the GFS shows 0.67″. I don’t think we have widespread, severe flooding issues, but some localized problems are certainly possible with the stronger storms.

OUR WEEKEND: The big upper low will be spinning away just north of here, meaning a mostly cloudy, cool Saturday with a few scattered showers possible. The high will be only in the mid 50s with only limited sunshine at times. Sunday will be partly sunny and a little warmer with a high around 60 degrees.

NEXT WEEK: The week looks like it will generally feature benign weather for Alabama, although a short wave could squeeze out a few showers at mid-week on Wednesday. Afternoon highs should be close to average values for mid-March, most days we will rise into the low to mid 60s.

AT THE BEACH: Look for lots of sunshine along the Gulf Coast this weekend, and into early next week. Highs along the immediate coast will be around 60, with mid to upper 60s just inland. Keep in mind the ocean is pretty cool; SSTs are in the 57 to 60 degree range from Panama City to Gulf Shores; that cool water will cap maximum temperatures for the coastal communities during the week.

VOODOO COUNTRY: Looks like much colder air will move down into the continental U.S. late next week, but it remains to be seen how much of it reaches Alabama and the Deep South. I would say it is safe to suggest we will have at least one or two more cold snaps with potential for freezing temperatures before we get into the core of spring.

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