Storms Possible Tomorrow

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DELIGHTFUL DAY TODAY: Before we talk about the storm potential, we need to confirm that today will be a simply marvelous spring day, with a sunny sky and a high in the mid 70s this afternoon. Some folks in West Alabama might even see upper 70s. Quite the contrast to the winter-like day we dealt with on Monday.

TOMORROW: SPC has put parts of West Alabama under their standard slight risk of severe weather for tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening; watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics. Each run of the GFS has been a little stronger with the approaching short wave, and with surface based CAPE values in the 500 j/kg range, a few surface based storms seem likely. Overall instability is certainly not very impressive for this time of the year, but the dynamics associated with the short wave could produce a few strong to severe storms. We note the STP (significant tornado parameter) rises to around 2.0 on the GFS, and there is a significant amount of low level shear, so a few rotating updrafts are not out of the question. The best chance of showers and storms will come from about 3:00 until 9:00 p.m., which is of course the time when the air tends to be most unstable. We will be keeping an eye on the radar for sure.

FRIDAY: The models continue to trend cooler; the NAM is printing a high of only 56 degrees; the GFS is warmer with 62. We will forecast a high around 60, with morning clouds giving way to a partly sunny afternoon. The day should be generally dry.

THE WEEKEND: Saturday still looks great with ample sunshine and a high in the low 70s. But, clouds return quickly Saturday night, and Sunday will be cloudy with occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm. For now the severe weather threat looks small Sunday due to the lack of instability and marginal dynamics. Rain amounts of about 1/2 inch seem likely.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS continues to back off on the strength of the upper trough, so we will be more optimistic in our Monday forecast, with a clearing sky and a high in the 60s. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the GFS builds a strong ridge aloft by mid-week, suggesting the warmest weather so far this year. We could very well be around the 80 degree mark one week from today.

LONG RANGE: The weather, as you might expect this time of the year, remains very changeable. See the Weather Xtreme video for details; the good news is that we don’t see any sign of a late season freeze at this point through April 8.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Scroll down for this week’s show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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I will be doing a weather program this morning at Deer Valley Elementary in Hoover… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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