Happy Mother’s Day: Storms Possible Across Alabama Today, Some May Be Strong, Even Severe

Mother’s day lettering design with beautiful blossom flower

No video this morning. Happy Mother’s Day!

It’s Mother’s Day in Alabama—a time when families gather, flowers are gifted, and memories are made around kitchen tables and front porches. But this year, the celebrations come with umbrellas and the steady rhythm of rain on rooftops. A stubborn upper-level low is still spinning across the Deep South, keeping much of the state soggy and stormy. From heartfelt brunches to afternoon tea, weather will be part of the backdrop on this special Sunday. It may not be a picture-perfect day outside, but it’s one that reminds us how comforting home can be—especially when the rain keeps us close.

SYNOPTIC SETUP
A stacked low-pressure system centered over Louisiana is dominating the southern U.S. weather scene this weekend. Aloft, a 500mb closed low and accompanying jet stream energy are feeding a moist, unstable airmass northward into Alabama. At the surface, a warm front lifting from southern Georgia is ushering in tropical dewpoints, setting the stage for scattered convection. Meanwhile, cold-air damming to the east continues to provide a wedge of cool, stable air over parts of northeast Alabama, adding to the complexity.

SUNDAY’S SLOW SOAKER
Expect waves of showers and thunderstorms to develop and spread across Central Alabama, with the highest coverage east of I-65 in the morning, expanding westward during the afternoon. Some storms may become strong to severe—especially in the southwest half of the state—where sunshine could allow the atmosphere to destabilize. Damaging winds and hail are the main threats, and the rainfall itself could be the biggest hazard. Training storms could bring localized flash flooding, especially over already saturated ground. Rain chances taper late tonight, but some areas may not dry out until after midnight.

RAINFALL RECORDS FALLING
Tuscaloosa shattered its daily rainfall record on Saturday with 3.26 inches, topping the old mark of 3.01 inches set back in 1976. That pushed the monthly total for May to 8.37 inches as of Saturday afternoon. This early-month deluge already places May 2025 as the fifth wettest May on record at the Tuscaloosa Airport ASOS, with more rain expected tonight and through early next week. With another 2 to 4 inches possible over the next five days, Tuscaloosa is now within striking distance of the all-time record of 11.13 inches set in May 1976.

A DREARY START TO THE WEEK
Rain and thunderstorms will remain likely on Monday as the upper low slowly lifts northeastward. Expect another cloudy and damp day, with temperatures held in the 70s and rainfall most frequent in the northeast. By Tuesday, storms will become more scattered and confined to the northeast counties as drier air begins to filter in from the southwest. Temperatures will slowly climb—starting to resemble early summer again.

SUN RETURNS MIDWEEK
By Wednesday, the upper low pulls away and high pressure begins building in from the west. Skies clear, and sunshine dominates by Thursday and Friday. This will bring a noticeable warming trend, with highs climbing into the mid and upper 80s by the end of the week. Humidity will remain tolerable—at least for now—but the air will feel distinctly more like June by Friday.

PEEK INTO VOODOO LAND
Looking into the week two period, long-range models hint at a continued ridge pattern over the Southeast through mid-May. That means warmer and drier conditions may dominate Alabama’s weather into the third week of the month. However, we’ll need to keep a watchful eye on the Caribbean, where ensemble guidance hints at possible tropical mischief during the final days of May or early June.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
The Storm Prediction Center highlights a marginal risk (Level 1/5) for severe storms across the southwest half of Central Alabama from 3 PM to 11 PM CDT Today. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail up to quarter size are possible in stronger cells. A few rotating storms and even an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially near the Florida Panhandle and coastal Mississippi/Alabama. Elsewhere, isolated strong storms are possible as far north as Tennessee and east into Georgia.

THE BEAUTIFUL BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
If you’re heading south, know that a high rip current risk remains in effect through Monday night, so please stay alert if you plan to swim. Surf heights will run 3 to 4 feet with water temperatures in the upper 70s. Expect mostly sunny skies with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday. Winds will be from the southeast around 10–15 mph. Highs along the coast will be in the upper 70s. Whether you’re in Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Pensacola, Destin, the Beaches of 30A, or Panama City—enjoy the sand, stay safe, and keep an eye on the sky.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
The potential for tropical development in the western Caribbean next weekend has diminished but not vanished. Model guidance shows lower probabilities for organized tropical formation in the region, with ensemble forecasts now favoring development in the eastern Pacific instead. Still, the southwestern Caribbean remains an area of interest heading into late May and early June, especially with the Madden-Julian Oscillation forecast to return to a favorable phase by June 6–16. For now, the chance of development is estimated at just 10 percent.

DANCIN’ WITH THE STATS
If the mercury hits 95°F in Rapid City, SD today, it will be the earliest 95-degree reading ever recorded there.

WEATHERBRAINS PREVIEW
This week on WeatherBrains, we welcome Jeff Givens, creator of Durango Weather Guy, a grassroots weather blog serving the San Juan Mountains. Jeff’s self-taught meteorology and hyperlocal forecasts have built a loyal following in Colorado. He’ll talk about how his Iowa upbringing and love of winter weather turned into a full-time passion. Join us live Monday at 7 PM CDT at YouTube.com/WeatherBrains, or find us later on WeatherBrains.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY
A devastating day in Texas weather history on this date in 1953. In San Angelo, an F4 tornado struck Lake View School, heavily damaging the building but sparing lives thanks to timely tornado warnings issued that morning—a rare and new practice at the time. Tragically, later that day, a massive F5 tornado tore through downtown Waco with no warning at all. Over 850 homes were destroyed, and 114 people were killed, making it the deadliest tornado in Texas history. The Waco storm was the first officially rated F5 on what became the Fujita Scale, and its impact transformed how tornado warnings were communicated across the country.

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