Moist Air Begins To Return
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TODAY: The weather still looks pretty decent today, although low level moisture will begin to return. The day should be partly sunny, warm, and breezy at times with a high in the low to mid 80s. A few scattered showers could move up in here tonight, but nothing especially heavy. The big rain and storm event today will be to the west, where SPC has defined a slight risk of severe storms from Louisiana north to parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.
OUR WEEKEND: Still somewhat of a challenging forecast. I still think the heaviest rain, and best chance of severe storms will a little west of here, with places like Jackson, Little Rock, and Memphis having potential for significant flooding with over 5 inches of rain. The heaviest rain band could impact the northwest corner of Alabama tomorrow, including places like Florence, Muscle Shoals, and Russellville. Elsewhere, we will mention scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow with a high in the low to mid 80s. It won’t rain all day, but it could rain at any time with a very moist airmass in place. And, a strong storm is certainly possible.
Sunday will feature a battle between the trough to the west, and a warm, dry ridge to the east. Interesting to note the NAM has much of Alabama dry with a stronger ridge. In fact, the NAM is projecting a high of 90 degrees in Birmingham Sunday with a partly sunny sky. We will lean more toward the GFS, which shows the ridge to the east, and sufficient moisture for a few scattered showers and storms. Still, during the day Sunday, the most organized rain and storms will stay to the west, where significant flooding problems could very well develop.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: This is when the axis of the heavier and more widespread rain will move deeper into Alabama. Rain and storms are likely, and the rain could be heavy at times. The 00Z GFS suggests the main window for this will come from about 9:00 p.m. Sunday through 12:00 noon Monday. A strong storm is possible, but a major severe weather issue in this time frame does not look likely.
REST OF NEXT WEEK: Most of the rain could be down over South Alabama on Tuesday, and Wednesday through Friday look generally dry statewide. Afternoons will stay warm with highs generally in the 80s.
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NO AFTERNOON VIDEO: I am taking a 1/2 day off today… haven’t had a day off since Christmas, so I think I might slip in a 1/2 day vacation. I won’t be working the TV night shift; thanks to Ashley Brand for filling in…. and there won’t be an afternoon Weather Xtreme video today. Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday, and I will get back to the regular two a day schedule Monday. Enjoy the weekend!
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