Heat Continues – Tropics Becoming Active

| August 12, 2007 @ 7:52 am | 3 Replies

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below and on iTunes.

Yet another day of record heat across Central Alabama as records from back to 1954 fell yesterday. And the record heat is expected to continue for several more days, so I expect to see more records set. Bill Murray has a discussion below on the longest stretch of consecutive days with 100 degree heat, so be sure to take a look at that.

The upper ridge ebbs a bit but manages to maintain a good hold on Central Alabama for the next several days, so I think the heat will be with us through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Toward the end of the week the upper ridge weakens a bit so by Saturday we should see temperatures dropping back into the 90s. We could also see enough moisture return by the end of the upcoming week for scattered showers once again.

There is a big difference between the drier air across North and Central Alabama and the soupy, wet air across South Alabama. The boundary between the two may be inching northward slightly. Showers erupted along that boundary yesterday, so it will be necessary to watch how that meanders today. I believe the greatest threat of storms will remain south of Clanton, but the changes in the boundary will need to be monitored.

The picture for the Gulf does not look completely cut and dried. The Canadian model is still latching onto the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean just south of Cuba this morning. It continues to show a closed surface low moving westward across the Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian has been very consistent with this solution, but the GFS has been equally consistent in not doing anything with that area. The latest GFS model run does seem to develop a weak low in the Gulf but not until Saturday, August 18. The GFS does show an upper low around Thursday, so the two models are quite different on timing. It sure seems that the GFS is awfully slow with the upper low, so my confidence is not too high. But the Canadian seems to be too strong, so my confidence in its solution is not too high either. The warmth of the water in that area is certainly a factor that favors development, but upper level winds don’t seem as good as the moment. This will be something that will need watching.

And the tropics have really become active with what might be the development of a Cape Verde storm. Satellite imagery shows a large cluster of thunderstorms just south of the Cape Verde Islands, and the GFS is forecasting it to develop into a strong storm. The storm moves steadily along south of the big ridge over the Atlantic. The GFS places it in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands late Thursday or early Friday. Because of the strong ridge north of the storm, the GFS takes it westerly across the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday, August 21, and into Mexico. Based on what we’ve seen for the last couple of weeks, that track looks pretty good. But we are in voodoo land, so this will be one to watch. Tropical systems have a way of keeping things interesting due to generally weak pattern associated with the tropics. So stay tuned as we see how the 2007 hurricane season begins to shape up.

Thanks so much for checking in with the Blog here. James Spann will be back tomorrow morning with the next Weather Xtreme Video. I spent a good deal of time yesterday enjoying the pool at Mt. Cheaha, and I have that again on my calendar for today. I hope your Sunday is a good one – be careful about the heat. God bless.

-Brian-

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About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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