Tropics Coming Alive

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…

FLOSSIE: Let me mention this up front since I am afraid that I will forget if I don’t. Hurricane Flossie is moving in the general direction of Hawaii; the system is now packing 140 mph winds (Category 4), but the storm should weaken considerably during the next 48 hours as it passes just south of the Hawaiian Islands late tomorrow night. The system will be close enough to bring gusty winds to part of Big Island; read the Local Action Statement here. And, read more over on our sister site, weatherparty.com. We have of readers with interests in Hawaii…

THE HEAT PARADE: A quick check of 2:00 observations:

Tuscaloosa 101
Muscle Shoals 101
Montgomery 101
Birmingham 100
Anniston 96

The core of the heat seems to be centered today from around Tuscaloosa and Muscle Shoals, across the Mississippi Delta, and on into Arkansas. Looks like our friends over in East Alabama will stay below 100 degrees today; nobody griping about that.

For Birmingham, today is the 7th day in a row with 100 degree heat, and we will tie the record for consecutive 100 degree days (the record was set during July 1980) if we reach the century mark tomorrow. Sure looks like we will break the record as the upper air high will actually shift back to the east, in our direction, by Wednesday and Thursday. We could be dealing with triple digit heat all the way through the coming weekend.

NO SOIL MOISTURE: I strongly recommend Tim Coleman’s excellent post on the “physics of the heat wave”… no doubt if we had adequate soil moisture in place, we would be close to the temperatures that are showing up on model MOS (model output statistics) products.

There might be a window open tomorrow for a thunderstorm complex to work southward into Alabama, but only an outside risk. The rest of the week should be dry, and quite frankly, no major rain event shows up on the GFS for the next 15 days as the drought will worsen. Birmingham’s rain deficit for the year is now 20.23”.

TROPICS COMING ALIVE: The disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico should move in the general direction of the lower Texas coast during the next 48 hours, making landfall somewhere near or south of Corpus Christi. The primary threat from this one will be heavy rain and flooding along the Texas coastal plain, and up the Rio Grande. All of the associated rain will remain well to the south of Alabama.

TD4: This one has the potential to become a major hurricane in coming days. The system, now in the eastern part of the Atlantic, is moving steadily to the west, and the latest NHC track has it moving through the Leeward Islands Friday night.

However, the 12Z run of the GFS turns the system to the northwest in the Atlantic, and the 12Z GFDL is coming in with the same idea (a course that will keep it out of the Caribbean and the Gulf). Both of these models are now hinting that the east coast of the U.S. will be at risk, but this remains voodoo at this point. The 00Z run of the GFS took the system into the Mexican coast last night, so we are dealing with pure model madness right now. We wait and watch, as always.

AIR QUALITY ALERT: On top of everything else, we just got word that there is a code orange air quality alert for the Birmingham metro tomorrow for particle pollution and ozone. Come on, October…

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather hosted by David Black and featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will be recording a new show tonight, and it will be available on the web and iTunes late tonight or early tomorrow.

WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. Plenty of very interesting articles to read over there.

I had a great time today speaking to the first graders at Vincent Elementary School in Shelby County; be looking for them on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00. Also, I will be live at More Than Conquerors Church at 5:00 and 6:00; we will be telling you more about our “Neighbors In Need” campaign to get fans to those people that really need them during this heat wave. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

Category: Uncategorized