The 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season – A Recap

What went wrong? That is the question on the minds of some people as the 2006 North Atlantic Hurricane Season comes to a close. There had been dire predictions before the season started of another barrage of hurricanes in the wake of the record setting season in 2005 which saw five landfalling U.S. hurricanes and an unprecedented twenty eight named storms in the Atlantic.

In fact, the 2006 season was very nearly average according to long term statistics. It was just far below the forecasts. There were nine named storms in 2006, including five hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The long term averages going back to 1950 were 10.3 names storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes.

It is just that against the backdrop of the active years that started in 1996, the 2006 numbers were low. Between 1995 and 2005, the averages had spiked to 15.2 named storms, 8.5 hurricanes and 4.1 major hurricanes respectively.

In April 2006, Dr. William Gray and his team the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University had predicted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. NOAA issued similar prognostications: 13-16 names storms, 8-10 hurricanes and 4-6 major hurricanes.

So what did go wrong with the forecast? Experts attributed the downturn in Atlantic activity to an El Nino condition that rapidly developed in the Pacific. In any case, it was a well deserved and important breather for battered coastal locations in the United States and Mexico.

Category: Pre-November 2010 Posts